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MPS Preview: High for Longer

PKR gains 16 paisa against USD in a week

PKR gains 16 paisa against USD in a week
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March 08, 2024 (MLN): The Pakistani rupee (PKR) gained around 16 paisa against the U.S. Dollar this week and settled at PKR 279.04 per USD, compared to the previous week's closing of PKR 279.18 per USD.

In today's session, the domestic unit marked an appreciation of around 25 paisa.

Moreover, the currency saw an intraday high (bid) of 279.65 and a low (ask) of 279.4.

In the open market, exchange companies quoted the dollar at 279.11 for buying and 281.74 for selling.

This marks the second consecutive weekly win witnessed by the domestic unit against the mighty Dollar.

According to Goldman Sachs’ GSDEER framework, PKR is nearly 20% undervalued on a 12-month horizon and offers about 26% nominal carry.

The Goldman Sachs Economic Research report further suggests that positive real rates could be the catalyst needed for the Rupee's value increase, provided inflation rates begin to decline.

Currently, the home unit has somewhat lost the stable phase that it had maintained against the USD for a significant period due to the political and economic uncertainty that arose after the general elections held in the country on February 08.

It is crucial to note that Shehbaz Sharif was elected on Sunday as the prime minister of the country for a second term.

According to the newly elected prime minister, Pakistan needs deep surgery to bring revolutionary changes in the system and reform various sectors.

On a positive note, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also expressed its eagerness to collaborate with the new government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability. 

In comparison to major currencies, PKR lost 97.09 paisa against the Euro, closing at 305.2 compared to the previous value of 304.23.

The British Pound became expensive by 2.1 rupees closing at 357.68 compared to 355.59 from a day ago.

The Swiss franc saw gains of 1.63 rupees, closing at 318.43 compared to 316.79 from the previous session.

Against the Japanese Yen, PKR lost 0.06 paisa, closing at 1.8871 versus 1.8865 a day ago.

The Chinese Yuan lost 0.17 paisa, closing at 38.8 against 38.8 from the previous session.

The Saudi Riyal closed at 74.4 with a loss of 6.53 paisa from its value of 74.46 a day ago.

The U.A.E Dirham decreased in value by 7.19 paisa from 75.97 a day ago to 76.04.

During the current financial year, PKR has appreciated against the Dollar by 6.95 rupees or 2.49%. While the current calendar year has seen PKR appreciate by 2.82 rupees or 1.01%.

In the Money Market, the benchmark 6-month Karachi Interbank Bid and Offer rates fell by 7 bps to 21.11% and 21.36%.

The secondary market yields have further dropped after Wednesday's auction, during which the yields of Market Treasury Bills (MTB) saw a significant drop of up to 30bps.

The persistent decline in auction yields and the ease in inflation figures to a 20-month low have strengthened market participants' hopes for a rate cut soon.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conducted a reverse repo and Shariah-compliant Modarabah-based Open Market Operation (OMO) today, in which it cumulatively injected a total of Rs7.63 trillion into the market.

Of which Rs7.51tr were injected through reverse repo OMO.

Meanwhile, the remaining Rs120.5 billion was injected through Shariah-compliant Modarabah-based OMO.

Performance Summary

Currency Mar 08, 2024 Mar 07, 2024 Change 1 Month FYTD CYTD 1 Day 7 Day 1 Month MTD FYTD CYTD
USD 279.0366 279.2852 0.2486 0.2438 6.9539 2.8241 0.09% 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 2.49% 1.01%
EUR 305.1963 304.2254 -0.9709 -4.3276 7.7345 6.302 -0.32% -1.03% -1.42% -0.91% 2.53% 2.06%
GBP 357.6831 355.586 -2.0971 -5.357 6.4542 0.9141 -0.59% -1.34% -1.5% -1.24% 1.8% 0.26%
CHF 318.4259 316.7937 -1.6322 0.4602 1.3309 16.6439 -0.51% -1.07% 0.14% -0.24% 0.42% 5.23%
JPY 1.8871 1.8865 -0.0006 -0.0176 0.1052 0.1024 -0.03% -1.74% -0.93% -1.16% 5.57% 5.43%
SAR 74.3979 74.4632 0.0653 0.0729 1.8561 0.7649 0.09% 0.06% 0.1% 0.03% 2.49% 1.03%
AED 75.9717 76.0436 0.0719 0.0664 1.8901 0.771 0.09% 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 2.49% 1.01%
CNY 38.7963 38.798 0.0017 0.0271 0.8734 0.8351 0% -0.03% 0.07% 0% 2.25% 2.15%

52 Week Performance

Currency High Low Trading Band % Since High % Since Low High Date Low Date Days Since High Days Since Low
USD 275.438 307.1 31.6619 -1.29% 10.06% 04-Jul-23 05-Sep-23 248 185
EUR 291.618 332.701 41.083 -4.45% 9.01% 16-Oct-23 31-Aug-23 144 190
GBP 335.666 387.972 52.3065 -6.16% 8.47% 10-Mar-23 31-Aug-23 364 190
CHF 301.843 347.163 45.3199 -5.21% 9.02% 10-Mar-23 31-Aug-23 364 190
JPY 1.851 2.2178 0.3668 -1.91% 17.52% 16-Oct-23 11-May-23 144 302
SAR 73.4412 81.8703 8.429 -1.29% 10.04% 04-Jul-23 05-Sep-23 248 185
AED 74.9888 83.6089 8.620 -1.29% 10.05% 04-Jul-23 05-Sep-23 248 185
CNY 37.8634 43.0908 5.2274 -2.4% 11.07% 16-Oct-23 11-May-23 144 302

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Posted on: 2024-03-08T16:28:29+05:00