Pakistan inflation seen falling below 10%

September 01, 2024 (MLN): The headline inflation for August is expected to slow down with an average estimate of 9.6% YoY compared to 11.1% YoY in the previous month and 27.4% YoY in August 2023, as per the projections put forth by various brokerage houses/analysts.

This would bring 2MFY25 average inflation to around 10.3%, compared to 27.8% during same period last year.

On a monthly basis, the inflation is expected to move up with an average estimate of 0.3% compared to 2.1% last month and the last 12-month average increase of 0.9%.

This would be the first single-digit inflation since October 2021, when it was 9.2%.

This trend of YoY disinflation continues due to a high base effect, stable parity, and lower international commodity prices, brokerage house Arif Habib Limited (AHL) said in its "CPI preview" report.

Monthly projections however for August 2024 suggest that inflation will rise by 0.4%., it said.

AHL noted that key indices contributing to this trend include the food index, expected to increase by 1.1% MoM due to rising prices of chicken, eggs, onions, garlic, and pulses.

However, housing index is projected to decrease by 0.6% MoM, primarily due to reduced electricity charges resulting from FCA adjustment and the recent relief package by the PM provided for domestic consumers.

Similarly, the transport index is anticipated to fall by 0.8% MoM, mainly due to the decrease in petroleum prices.

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