March 26, 2024 (MLN): US oil production is set to end the year at a record pace of about 14 million barrels a day as falling costs and improved drilling efficiency overshadow subdued growth plans from publicly listed companies, Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts said in a note as Bloomberg reported.
Macquarie stood out among analysts last year with its projection of increased US shale production and ultimately was proved correct.
Its latest forecast comes as shale-oil explorers are vowing to rein in production growth for a fourth straight year and consolidation in the industry presents headwinds to further growth.
The US government expects production to edge up to 13.2m barrels a day this year.
Macquarie models US production exiting 2025 at about 14.5m barrels a day, despite expectations for significantly lower crude prices.
“This year’s headwinds could flip to tailwinds in a scenario where the growth impulse from private companies recharges and public companies attack high-graded resource bases next year,” analysts led by Walt Chancellor said in the note.
