September 29, 2021 (MLN): The total DAP offtake during the month of August 2021 was recorded at 187 thousand tonnes, depicting a decline of 36.8 percent as compared to the offtake of 295 thousand tonnes in August 2020.
This took 8MCY21 DAP offtake to 855K MT, down 25% YoY. The decline in 8MCY21 DAP offtake comes from pre-buying triggered by supply shocks which began in Aug’20.
The local DAP prices have witnessed an uptick of Rs1,800/bag over the last 12 months (currently at Rs6,400/bag). The fertilizer prices may potentially continue to see an upward trend, where international DAP prices translate into 6,700 per bag, AKD research highlighted.
According to the monthly report issued by National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), the cumulative DAP offtake during Kharif 2020-21 (April-August) was 667 thousand tonnes indicating a 28.5 percent decrease over the same time frame of Kharif 2020.
Province-wise, DAP offtake during August 2021 significantly decreased in all provinces by 33, 49, 43 and 42 percent in Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan, respectively as compared to the same timeframe of last year.
The report revealed that the total availability of DAP during August 2021 was 565 thousand tonnes, which included 407 thousand tonnes stock of the previous month, 82 thousand tonnes of imported supplies and domestic production of 77 thousand tonnes. DAP offtake was about 187 thousand tonnes. The closing balance worked out to be 379 thousand tonnes.
Kharif 2021 began with 55 thousand tonnes of opening inventory of DAP. About 1,365 thousand tonnes of DAP would be available in Kharif 2021 comprising of 868 thousand tonnes of imported supplies and 442 thousand tonnes of domestic production against an estimated offtake of 879 thousand tonnes. Opening stock for the upcoming Rabi season 2021-22 is expected to be around 494 thousand tonnes.
During Rabi 2021-22, the availability of DAP is expected to be around 1,031 thousand tonnes comprising 494 thousand tonnes of opening stock, 372 thousand tonnes of domestic production and 165 thousand tonnes of confirmed imports. Demand for DAP is estimated at around 1,003 thousand tonnes for Rabi 2021 22. Thus, the supply and demand gap will be filled through imports which are totally handled by the private sector. Other phosphatic products like SSP, Nitrophos and MAP will also be available in the market to meet the demand for phosphate fertilizers.
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