According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Yearly Inflation rate in October 2017 was 3.80 percent compared to 3.86 percent in September 2017 and 4.21 percent in October 2016.
The July-October average inflation is 3.495 percent compared to 3.94 percent from the corresponding period last year. Inflation rate change during October from previous month (September) was 0.75%.
Market Expectation of Inflation for October was between 3.6 percent and 3.91 percent. Consensus for expected October YoY inflation averaged out at 3.77 percent.
Analysts expect Food and Housing heads to make most impact on the inflation. October has historically witnessed Housing related inflationary impact for the last few years.
Analysts expect the Central Bank to raise rates in March next year, as inflationary pressure is expected to increase during next six months.
Saudi Arabia has recently expressed that they are planning to increase rates of oil exports to Asian markets. With the gradual but sure rise in oil prices in international markets, analysts expect the “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels (HWEGF)” prices to go up.
The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels (HWEGF) head occupies 29.41 percent share in the basket of Consumer Price Index.
In line with analyst expectations, major contributors to month-on-month consumer prices index change were: Food items were the major part of the items with price increases with Tomatoes +31.42% being the highest. On the other hand, Spinach -39.72, Pomegranate -14.59$ and Bananas -13.09% saw the most significant decline in local prices.
Year on year, price changes have been impacted by changes in Food Sector. With Onions +178.60% and Tomatoes +70.98% witnessing the most increase in prices during the last year. On the flipside, Garlic -39.01%, Pulses -26.82% and Cigarettes (Capstan) -26.52% prices fell during the year.
Due to an increase in Private Engineering College Fees, Education Group in the CPI index witnessed a month on month increase of 3.66%.