Inflation soars to multi-month high at 11.53%YoY

November 30, 2021 (MLN): CPI general inflation increased by 11.53%YoY in November taking the 5MFY22 average to 9.32%YoY on the back of a surprise increase in food, housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel prices, latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Tuesday.

November CPI readings are highest since May 2021 when CPI clocked in at 10.9%YoY.

“The NCPI for November 2021 increased by 2.98% over October 2021 and increased by 11.53% over the corresponding month of the last year i.e. November 2020,” the PBS said in a press release.

CPI inflation urban increased by 12.0%YoY whereas rural jumped by 10.9%YoY in November 2021 as compared to 9.6%YoY and 8.7%YoY (respectively) during the same month last year.

“Inflation for November clocks in at 11.5%YoY. The multi-month high nearly locks the chances of a monetary policy hike next month. Numbers show the purchasing power is hurt. [Seco]nd round of inflation will follow after mini-budget and lagged impact of rupee depreciation. Watch your spending,” Arsalan Soomro of KASB Securities said in a tweet.

November headline inflation readings are much higher than the market expectations of 10.2%YoY.

Prices of food items that witnessed a YoY increase during the month included: cooking oil (54.88%), mustard oil (54.2%), vegetable ghee (53%), meat (18.39%), pulse masoor (17.88%), fruits (15.55%), wheat flour (15.48%) and vegetables (13.41%).

Meanwhile, price of non-food items whose price increased during the month included: liquefied hydrocarbons (61.45%), electricity charges (47.87%), motor fuel (40.22%), hosiery (15.3%) and construction input items (12.83%).

SPI inflation on YoY increased by 18.1% in November 2021 as compared to an increase of 15.2% in the preceding month. On an MoM basis, it increased by 3.6% during the month under review.

WPI inflation saw a much larger increase of 27.0%YoY during the month as compared to an increase of 21.2% a month earlier.

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