China's soybean imports drop by 9% in Nov, decline in Brazilian supply

December 10, 2024 (MLN): China's soybean imports fell by 9% to 7.15 million metric tons in November, down from 7.92mn tons during the same period last year due to a decrease in Brazillian arrivals, as reported by Reuters.

China's soybean imports in November were lower than analysts' estimates of 7.5-8.5mn tons.

However, despite the shortfall, the world's largest oilseed buyer is still on track for record annual imports, according to Reuters calculations of customs data released on Tuesday.

The bigger-than-expected drop was due to a decrease in arrivals of old Brazilian soybeans, said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.

In recent months, China has taken in larger-than-usual shipments of U.S. supply due to worries over the potential for renewed U.S.-China tensions hitting agriculture trade.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said he will impose tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking concerns about a trade war.

According to Reuters, Farmers and traders are racing to ship soybeans to China before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.

Most U.S. soybeans had been shipped to China in October, Wan said.

"Considering the shipping time, U.S. soybeans purchased in October will arrive in China around December. Therefore, the import volume in December will be higher than that in November.", he further added.

Total soybean imports for the January-November period jumped 9.4% year-on-year to 97.09mn tons, the customs data showed.

China imported a record 100.31mn tons of soy in 2020.

The large arrival volumes have weighed on China's most active soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which has fallen since October to near their lowest since July 2023.

Crush margins in China's key processing hub of Rizhao have also shrunk to a loss of about 274 yuan ($37.80) per ton of soybean processed from a profit of about 78 yuan ($10.70) in November ($1 = 7.2480 Chinese yuan renminbi)

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