Oil gains on hopes of U.S. shutdown deal

November 10, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices climbed on Monday amid optimism that a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown could soon boost demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation, despite lingering worries over increasing global supply.

Brent crude futures went up by $0.45, or 0.71%, to $64.08 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.46, or 0.77%, to $60.21 per barrel by [9:40 am] PST.

The U.S. Senate is moving toward a vote to reopen the federal government, a development expected to restore pay to around 800,000 federal employees and revive critical programs.

“The imminent reopening is a welcome boost, restoring pay to federal workers and reigniting consumer confidence, spending, and overall market activity,” said IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore. “This should also help improve risk sentiment across markets and push WTI prices toward $62 per barrel,” he added.

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks slipped about 2% last week, marking their second consecutive weekly decline amid growing fears of a global supply glut. OPEC+ members agreed to a modest output increase for December but decided to hold off on further hikes in the first quarter of 2026, cautious of worsening oversupply conditions.

In the U.S., crude inventories continue to build, while floating storage in Asian waters has nearly doubled in recent weeks. This surge follows tighter Western sanctions that have limited oil imports to China and India, alongside a shortage of import quotas that has restrained demand from China’s independent refiners.

Meanwhile, Indian refiners have been increasingly sourcing oil from the Middle East and the Americas to offset the shortfall in sanctioned Russian crude.

Russian oil producer Lukoil is facing growing operational challenges as the U.S. deadline to cease business dealings with the company approaches on November 21. Hopes of selling its assets to Swiss trader Gunvor have collapsed, further complicating Russia’s oil export situation.

Adding to global oversupply concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil imports a move analysts say could temporarily exacerbate supply imbalances in the market.

Despite supply-side headwinds, analysts remain cautiously optimistic that a U.S. government reopening could support oil demand recovery and help stabilize prices in the coming weeks.

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