Cement dispatches likely to drop 28% MoM in June 2025

July 01, 2025 (MLN): Pakistan’s local cement dispatches are projected to decline by 28% month-on-month (MoM) to 2.63 million tons in June 2025.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, dispatches are expected to fall by 15%.

The drop is mainly attributed to fewer working days in June due to Eid holidays, which led to a decline in daily sales to 88,000 tons compared to 118,000 tons in May 2025.

Based on provisional figures from 22 days of June, local sales stood at 1.75m tons.

According to channel checks, sales over the 29-day period of the month were estimated to be around 2.5m tons.

Compared to the 11-month FY25 average of 3.06m tons, domestic sales in June remain subdued, according to the report issued by Topline Securities.

The YoY drop is further explained by a higher base in June 2024, which had seen increased pre-buying ahead of a hike in the federal excise duty (FED) from Rs2 to Rs4 per bag. 

Cement exports in June 2025 are expected to rise by 93% YoY but decline by 8% MoM.

Among key players, LUCK and ACPL exports are anticipated to grow by 24% and 54% MoM, respectively, while DGKC’s exports are likely to fall by 56% MoM.

Total cement sales for the month are projected at 3.54m tons flat YoY and down 24% MoM.

Capacity utilization is estimated at 52%, down from 68% in May but matching June 2024 levels.

For FY25, overall cement sales are likely to remain flat YoY, with local sales declining by 5% and exports increasing by 30%.

An improvement in FY26 is expected, driven by better economic conditions and reduced interest rates.

Average retail prices in June dropped by 2% MoM in the North and increased by 2% in the South. On a YoY basis, prices rose by 6% in the North and 21% in the South.

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