BofA’s Hartnett sees market echoes of 2008 financial crisis

March 13, 2026 (MLN): Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett, warns that current market conditions are starting to mirror the prelude to the 2008 global financial crisis, driven by soaring oil prices and mounting concerns around private credit, according to Bloomberg.

Hartnett drew parallels with 2007–2008, when oil surged from $70 to $140 per barrel amid early subprime tremors that rattled banks like Northern Rock and Bear Stearns.

This year, the conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices over 60% higher, stoking fears of stagflation, rising inflation amid slowing economic growth.

Banks’ exposure to private credit, an asset class facing fund redemptions and tighter scrutiny, adds to market unease.

Hartnett emphasized that the greater risk to equities stems from earnings pressure rather than inflation itself.

He suggested cautionary price points for investors: selling oil above $100 per barrel, 30-year Treasuries above 5%, the dollar when the index exceeds 100, and the S&P 500 under 6,600.

Currently, the 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.89%, the dollar index at 100.18, and the S&P 500 at 6,673.

Hartnett also noted that while the market still anticipates a short-lived Iran conflict and sees private credit issues as non-systemic, bullish positioning continues, fueled by confidence that policymakers will intervene to stabilize markets.

BofA’s Sebastian Raedler echoed Hartnett’s caution, highlighting parallels between today’s credit sector and 2007.

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