Cement giants set to pour profits in 4QFY25

August 5, 2025 (MLN): Pakistan’s cement industry is poised to deliver strong quarterly earnings despite subdued domestic demand. The industry is expected to post consolidated earnings of Rs21 billion for the fourth quarter of FY25, marking a 43% YoY rise, according to a sector preview by KTrade Research.

Export-led momentum, declining finance costs, and improved energy efficiency are fueling optimism as the earnings season begins.

The report sees sector-wide gross margins expanding to 34%, a gain of over 400 basis points compared to the same period last year.

This recovery is credited to falling coal prices, enhanced use of renewable energy, and consistent price hikes. Cement prices reportedly climbed 12% YoY in the northern zone and 18% in the southern zone.

Export dispatches are forecast to grow by 33% YoY, helping push industry utilization rates to 55%, up from 52% last year. This growth is largely attributed to reopened trade routes through the Afghan border and improving global demand.

Company-level earnings forecasts reflect sharp rebounds:

Finance costs are expected to drop 56% YoY amid easing interest rates and lighter debt obligations. Tax rates are likely to normalise at 35%, down from 48% last year.

According to Abdul Rafay Malik, Research Analyst at KTrade, local demand is likely to rebound in FY26, backed by strong budgetary measures aimed at uplifting the construction sector.

The launch of a 200,000-unit low-cost housing scheme is expected to play a pivotal role, he added. 

He further noted that benefits may arise from fiscal consolidation, a lower policy rate, and a transition toward economic growth. Meanwhile, exports are expected to remain a steady contributor to overall sales.

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