Weekly Market Roundup

May 11, 2025 (MLN): Amidst geopolitical tensions, the local bourse witnessed a bearish week. Heavy sell-offs occurred due to the fear of rising conflict between Pakistan and India.

The rising fear of a full-blown military confrontation pushed investors to rush to dump shares on Thursday, which plummeted the benchmark KSE-100 Index by 6,948.72 points, or 6.32% at 12:39, causing the market to halt.

However, the trading floor witnessed a strong rebound on Friday, which led the benchmark Index to surge by 3,647 points or 3.52% DoD to close the week at 107,174.63. 

On a weekly basis, the Index lost 6,939.30 points or -6.08% compared to the previous week’s close of 114,113.93.

Market cap

The KSE-100 market capitalization stood at Rs3.20 trillion, down 6.61% from the previous week’s Rs3.43tr. In USD terms, the market cap was recorded at $11.38 billion, compared to $12.21bn in the prior week.

This week, the index return in USD terms was -6.29%, compared to -1.2% the previous week.

On the economic front,  the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to cut the policy rate by 100 bps to 11%, effective from May 6, 2025,  in contrast with market expectations. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board on Friday approved a total of $2.3 billion in funding for Pakistan, comprising the disbursement of a $1 billion tranche under its ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the launch of a new $1.3bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

Despite escalating geopolitical tensions with neighbouring India, Pakistan’s top economic leadership was in London this week to engage with UK officials and global investors in a bid to attract foreign direct investment.

The foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by $118.1 million or 1.16% WoW to $10.33 billion during the week ended on May 02, 2025.

Pakistan’s workers’ remittances reached around $3.2 billion in April 2025. This represents a 30.9% YoY increase compared to April 2024 and a 27.3% fall from the previous month.

The positive economic cues helped stabilize investor sentiment, pushing the KSE-100 index’s fiscal year-to-date returns to 36.62%, while CYTD return stood at -6.9%.

Top Index Movers

During the week, Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Cement and Technology & Communication dragged the index by -1637.36, -904.67,-738.26, and -529.20 points, respectively.

Among individual stocks UBL, LUCK, HUBC and OGDC lost -616.93, -435.09, -339.33 and -337.76, respectively.

FIPI/LIPI

This week, foreign investors remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth $1.52m.

Overseas Pakistanis led the buying spree with purchases worth $2.36m.

On the other hand, local investors were net sellers this week, offloading equities worth $1.52m.

Mutual Funds and Individuals sold securities worth $23.6m and $11.24m, respectively, while Banks bought securities worth $15.23m.

Outlook

The trading floor will likely see a rally tomorrow amidst strengthening investors' sentiments on the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and India and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval of $2.4 billion in funding.

The truce, easing regional tensions, has coincided with positive developments on the economic front.

Analysts fraternity is hopeful that the KSE-100 Index to have a rally of 3,000 to 4,500 points, equivalent to a 3.5% to 4.5% gain, right from the opening bell, with a majority of stocks expected to trade in the green.

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