September inflation seen falling to 7.5%

September 30, 2024 (MLN): The headline inflation for September is expected to slow down with a median estimate of 7.5% over the prior year compared to a 9.6% annual rate in the previous month and 31.4% in September 2023, as per the projections put forth by various brokerage houses/analysts.

This would bring 3MFY25 average inflation to around 9.4%, compared to 29.0% during the same period last year.

On a monthly basis, the inflation is expected to remain largely unchanged compared to an increase of 0.4% last month and the last 12-month average growth of 0.8%.

"We anticipate that disinflation will continue in the coming months, supported by several key factors: a high base effect, declining global commodity and energy prices, and a stable PKR parity," brokerage house Arif Habib Limited (AHL) noted in its inflation preview report.

Similarly, brokerage house AKD Securities said inflation would continue to decelerate due to steady food supplies, decreasing oil prices, appropriately tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and a stable exchange rate.

"We forecast inflation to drop below 8% YoY for FY25E, down from 23.8% YoY in FY24, driven by the recent disinflationary trend, lower oil prices, and a stable political environment," AKD added.

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