Pakistan exported 2.43Mt of cement during FY15-16 to Afghanistan, which fell to 1.76Mt in FY2016-17. While Afghanistan remains the biggest export market for Pakistan producers, this translates into a fall of 28 per cent.

However, the negative trend would turn into a positive one as the country already exported 1.65Mt of cement to Afghanistan during the first 10 months of the FY17-18. The peak export was 4.72Mt in 2010-11, since then exports have dwindled.

The industry experts see challenges ahead due to the influx of Iranian cement and Afghanistan's own capacity building. According to local media reports, Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan together export 10,000tpd of cement to Afghanistan, while its own capacity is less than 1000tpd. 

Iran's influence grew as sanctions were removed and it usurped a significant chunk of the market that Pakistan was catering to with its less costly cement. This resulted in a sharp decline in Pakistani exports since 2016.

Reportedly, the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum (MoMP) in Afghanistan is reissuing a tender for the 1Mta Jabal Saraj cement plant. This would equate to 30 per cent of the country's current imports. Given Iran's cheaper cement, and with other central Asian players are also vying to enter the Afghan market, experts suggested Pakistani cement might face challenges.