Pakistan GDP grew more than initially reported in FY24

September 30, 2024 (MLN): Pakistan's economy grew faster than initially thought in fiscal year 2023-24 amid strong growth in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product increased 2.52% over the prior year, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported.

That was an upward revision from the 2.38% rate reported in May, and compares with a contraction of 0.22% in FY23.

GDP in the fourth quarter of FY 2023-24 grew 3.07% from last year. 

Due to revisions in annual benchmarks, quarterly growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 during FY 2023-24 have changed to 2.69%, 1.97% and 2.36% from 2.71%, 1.79% and 2.09% presented in 109th meeting of the NAC respectively.

These estimates were approved in the 110th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting held today.

The economy has posted a stable growth of 3.07% during Q4 of FY 2023-24. The growth in agriculture, industry, and services stands at 6.76%, -3.59%, and 3.69% respectively.

During Q4, crops have posted a double-digit growth of 14.03%.

The growth in important crops stands at 26.98% mainly due to wheat (31.58 M.T) and partly due to low base effect of corresponding quarter i.e. -7.93% during Q4 of FY 2022-23. Due to decline in fruits,Q4 growth in other crops is negative i.e. -1.53% as compared to -0.64% in last year.

While livestock has grown at 3.98% vs. 4.31% in Q4, a high-base effect of 15.12% has resulted into negative growth of 0.35% in forestry.

Despite a positive growth in large-scale manufacturing (4.19% vs. -19.5%), the remaining components of the industry i.e. mining & quarrying (-5.32% vs. 1.22%), electricity, gas and water supply (-35.57% vs. 9.15%) and construction (-0.47% vs. -20.46%) have registered negative growth rates during Q4.

Although growth rates in finance and insurance (-2.55%) and public administration and social security (-0.18%) are negative, the overall growth in services is positive (3.69%) during Q4 2023-24 due to wholesale & retail trade (4.79%), transportation & storage (2.11%), information and communication (7.95%),education (9.04%), human health & social work activities (5.86%) and other private services (3.38%).

The committee also approved the introduction of quarterly estimates of net taxes, GDP, net primary income, and gross national income (GNI) in the National Statistical System of Pakistan, thereby paving the way for the quarterization of the expenditure side of the economy.

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