Oil prices dip on supply concerns despite trade war truce

May 13, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices eased on Tuesday from a two-week high, weighed down by concerns about rising supplies, despite earlier optimism over the pause in the U.S.-China trade war after both countries temporarily cut tariffs.

Brent crude futures decreased by $0.2, or 0.31%, to $64.76 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $0.17, or 0.28%, to $61.75 per barrel by [11:30 pm] PST.  

Both benchmarks closed about 1.5% higher on Monday at their steepest settlements since April 28. The gains come during a turbulent time for global oil markets.

The U.S. and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days, sending Wall Street stocks, the U.S. dollar and crude prices sharply higher on Monday.

“While a thawing in trade tensions between China and the US is helpful, there’s still plenty of uncertainty over what happens in 90 days.

This uncertainty could continue to generate headwinds for oil demand,” ING analysts said in an email to clients.

But underlying schisms that led to the dispute remain, including the U.S. trade deficit with China and U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for more action from Beijing to combat the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

Markets were also eyeing rising supplies as a key driver for oil price weakness, as CNBC reported.

“Though demand has been a key concern for the oil market, supply increases from OPEC+ mean that the market will be well supplied through the remainder of the year,” ING analysts said.

They added that how well supplied the market is will depend on whether OPEC+ sticks with plans for aggressive supply hikes in May and June.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has boosted oil output by more than previously expected since April, with May output likely up by 411,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, on the crude oil inventory front, analyst views were mixed.

A Reuters poll showed U.S. crude oil stocks likely fell last week, but Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor is expecting U.S. crude inventories to rise by 7.6 million barrels.

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