European gas futures rise 20% on LNG supply concerns

August 09, 2023 (MLN): European natural gas futures soared today as the possibility of worker strikes at some Australian facilities raised the risk of LNG supply disruptions.

Europe’s gas benchmark (Dutch TTF natural gas) is up by 21.64%, currently trading at €37.79, while the UK equivalent also rose 20%. Oil and coal also advanced.

Workers at facilities of Chevron Corp. and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. in Australia have voted to strike, which has the potential to affect liquefied natural gas exports from the country as global competition for fuel rises. The timing of the industrial action, if it goes ahead was not immediately clear, Bloomberg reported.

Asian buyers “are likely to bid up LNG imports” to replace Australian volumes if there are disruptions, which will affect Europe as well, said Nick Campbell, a director at Consultant Inspired Plc. “LNG has become a baseload supply in the European gas supply mix, therefore any signs that this flow is at risk leads to support in price.”

Separately, potential delays in Norway’s seasonal maintenance also pose a risk, adding to upward price pressure.

For now, at least, bullish factors are outweighing tepid demand and unusually high stockpiles in Europe.

Markets also seem to have difficulty “in pricing the mismatch” between healthy winter inventories and risks for the cold season amid increased tensions in Russia’s war against Ukraine, said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

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