CPI inflation falls to 17.3% in April 2024

MG News | May 02, 2024 at 01:15 PM GMT+05:00
May 02, 2024 (MLN): The consumer price index (CPI) for April 2024 clocked in at 17.3% YoY, compared to 20.7% YoY in the last month and 36.4% YoY in April 2023, the latest data issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday showed.
On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4% in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 1.7% in the previous month and an increase of 2.4% in April 2023.
The fall in monthly inflation was the first since June 2023, and significantly below the last 12-month average increase of 1.58% MoM.
The inflation figures came in line with the MG Research's expectations, while softer than the Finance Ministry's forecast.
Accordingly, this takes the average yearly inflation of 10MFY24 to 26.0% YoY compared to 28.2% YoY in 10MFY23.
The average core inflation, measured by non-food non-energy, rose 15.6% YoY in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 15.7% YoY in the previous month and an increase of 21.7% YoY in April 2023.
On a monthly basis, average core CPI increased 2.1% in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 2.2% in April 2023.
Metric | Apr-24 | Mar-24 | Apr-23 | 10MFY24 | 10MFY23 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CPI MoM | -0.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
CPI YoY | 17.3% | 20.7% | 36.4% | 26.0% | 28.2% |
Core CPI MoM | 2.1% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% |
Core CPI YoY | 15.6% | 15.7% | 21.7% | 19.8% | 17.0% |
With the CPI-based inflation rate at 17.3% and the policy rate at 22.0%, the real interest now stands at 4.7%.
Outlook
Continuing the disinflation trend, consumer prices will experience an even sharper downward trend from June onwards due to a high base.
If consumer prices rise an average 0.5% a month going forward, annual inflation will drop to about 6.2% by December.
With a 1% monthly increase, annual inflation will fall to about 12.7% by December.
Meanwhile, with an average monthly increase of 1.35%, which is the last 12-month average, annual inflation will stand at 17.4% by December.
The following chart maps out the yearly inflation trajectory based on monthly inflation rates of 0.5%, 1%, and the last 12-month average of 1.35%
Copyright Mettis Link News
Related News
Name | Price/Vol | %Chg/NChg |
---|---|---|
KSE100 | 154,277.19 471.37M | 1.06% 1611.47 |
ALLSHR | 94,348.18 1,076.75M | 0.89% 835.46 |
KSE30 | 47,063.22 194.28M | 1.21% 563.54 |
KMI30 | 223,849.80 250.88M | 1.57% 3467.85 |
KMIALLSHR | 63,265.69 539.59M | 0.90% 566.38 |
BKTi | 42,116.21 179.13M | 1.12% 468.14 |
OGTi | 31,247.50 31.17M | 1.21% 373.42 |
Symbol | Bid/Ask | High/Low |
---|
Name | Last | High/Low | Chg/%Chg |
---|---|---|---|
BITCOIN FUTURES | 112,060.00 | 113,810.00 110,480.00 | 1815.00 1.65% |
BRENT CRUDE | 65.67 | 67.05 65.07 | -1.32 -1.97% |
RICHARDS BAY COAL MONTHLY | 87.75 | 0.00 0.00 | -0.75 -0.85% |
ROTTERDAM COAL MONTHLY | 94.80 | 95.40 94.80 | -0.70 -0.73% |
USD RBD PALM OLEIN | 1,106.50 | 1,106.50 1,106.50 | 0.00 0.00% |
CRUDE OIL - WTI | 61.97 | 63.49 61.45 | -1.51 -2.38% |
SUGAR #11 WORLD | 15.58 | 15.74 15.51 | -0.11 -0.70% |
Chart of the Day
Latest News
Top 5 things to watch in this week
Pakistan Stock Movers
Name | Last | Chg/%Chg |
---|
Name | Last | Chg/%Chg |
---|