Pakistan’s mobile market set for Q4 rebound after August slump

September 26, 2025 (MLN): According to the Topline Securities, Pakistan’s domestic mobile phone manufacturing and assembly experienced a sharp slowdown in August 2025, recording a significant month-on-month (MoM) decrease of 46%, according to the latest data from the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA).

Local companies manufactured/assembled 1.94 million units in August, down from 3.59m in July, as consumers delayed purchases in anticipation of new model launches.

While the monthly decline was severe, year-on-year (YoY) production still showed a strong 30% growth. This seemingly contradictory performance is explained by two primary factors.

The steep month-on-month (MoM) contraction from July 2025 was driven by consumers postponing purchases to September and October, which are traditionally the introduce window for new smartphone models from global brands such as Samsung and Xiaomi.

The decline was further amplified by the unusually high sales base in July, which had experienced a spike due to pent-up demand being released after earlier supply chain disruptions.

On the other hand, the positive YoY growth shows the low base in August 2024, when the market was still recovering from a major sales slump.

That slump had been triggered by excessive pre-buying in June 2024, ahead of the new 18% GST imposition in the FY25 budget.

Despite the August setback, the local industry remains the cornerstone of Pakistan’s mobile market.

In the first eight months of 2025 (8M2025), total local sales reached 19.7m units, showing only a marginal 3% year-on-year decline.

The domestic industry also demonstrated near-total self-reliance, fulfilling 94% of the country’s overall mobile phone demand during this period.

In terms of device mix, 51% of the assembled units, or around 10m, were 2G/feature phones, emphasizing the sustained demand for affordable communication, while the remaining 49% equivalent to 9.7m units were smartphones.

The rankings of local assemblers in 8M2025 highlight the strength of both international and domestic brands, with VGO Tel and Infinix emerging as market leaders.

VGO Tel secured the top spot with 2.33m units, followed closely by Infinix with 2.24m units.

Other major players included Vivo (1.75m), Itel (1.53m), Xiaomi (1.16m), Tecno (1.09m), and Samsung (1.02m).

Meanwhile, legacy brands such as Q Mobile (0.77m), Nokia (0.72m), and G’Five (0.71m) also maintained a presence in the top ten. Looking ahead, the market is expected to stage a strong rebound in Q4.

The sector’s outlook is positive, with an anticipated 7-8% YoY growth in mobile phone sales over the next 12 months, supported by an environment of relatively low inflation.

The deferred purchases from August are expected to translate into a robust surge in the upcoming quarter.

The report highlights that the scheduled launches of new smartphone models by major players, particularly Samsung and Xiaomi around September, are highly likely to boost market demand significantly in the near term.

Companies like Airlink Communication (AIRLINK) and Lucky Cement (LUCK), whose locally assembled brands (Tecno, Xiaomi, and Samsung) are among the top 10, are strategically positioned to benefit from this expected seasonal increase in demand.

Copyright Mettis Link News