Pakistan targets 4% GDP growth in FY27

June 01, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan has set a GDP growth target of 4% for fiscal year 2026-27, banking on a recovery across agriculture, industry and services to sustain the country's economic rebound.

The targets, set at constant basic prices of 2015-16, reflect an improvement from provisional GDP growth of 3.7% recorded in 2025-26 and a revised 3.2% in 2024-25.

Commodity-producing sectors are targeted to grow by 3.9% in FY2026-27, up from a provisional 3.2% in the outgoing year.

Agriculture is projected to expand by 3.8%, driven by a rebound in important crops targeted at 3.6% after posting provisional growth of just 0.6% in 2025-26. Livestock, which contributes the largest share within the sector, is targeted to grow by 3.9%, while cotton ginning is projected to recover to 2.5% following near-stagnation in the provisional year, according to well-informed sources.

The industrial sector is targeted to grow by 4% in FY2026-27. Manufacturing covering large-scale, small-scale and slaughtering is projected to expand by 5.8%, with large-scale manufacturing targeted at 4.5% after posting provisional growth of 6.1% in 2025-26.

Construction growth is targeted at 2.2%, while electricity, gas and water supply is projected to grow by 1.1% after a sharp provisional contraction of 10.6% in the outgoing year.

The services sector, which accounts for the largest share of GDP, is targeted to grow by 4.2%. Wholesale and retail trade is projected to expand at the same pace, while transport, storage and communications are targeted at 3.7%.

Information and communication remains among the fastest-growing segments, with a target of 7.7%, while financial and insurance activities are projected to grow by 4.5% after near-stagnation of 0.3% provisionally in 2025-26.

The following table sets out sectoral growth targets for FY2026-27 alongside figures for preceding years:

Source: PBS & Planning Commission

Alongside sectoral targets, the government has set national savings at 14.3% of GDP and total investment at 15% of GDP for FY2026-27, with private investment projected to rise to 10.3% of GDP. Inflation is targeted at 8.2% for the fiscal year.

The government has projected the creation of 2 million jobs during FY2026-27, with the services sector expected to account for the largest share at 1.1 million, followed by industry at 500,000 and agriculture at 400,000.

It is cautioned that achieving these targets will depend on effective macroeconomic management, policy continuity and a stable external environment, noting that easing of import restrictions and scheduled external debt repayments could place pressure on the balance of payments.

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