Pakistan cotton arrival growth slows to 5%, raising price concerns

October 03, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan’s cotton arrivals have slowed significantly, with year-on-year growth falling to 5% by the end of September from 27% about a month earlier, raising concerns over domestic crop output and the potential for higher cotton prices and increased imports.

According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), cotton arrivals at ginning factories reached 3.208m bales as of September 30, compared with the corresponding period last year.

Punjab recorded arrivals of 1.215m bales, up 7% year-on-year, while Sindh accounted for 1.993m bales, showing an increase of around 4%.

Ehsan-ul-Haq, chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, said the slowdown in arrivals during the second half of September had weakened expectations for a substantial increase in cotton production this season.

Favourable weather conditions at the beginning of the season had raised hopes of a 10% to 15% improvement in production compared with last year. However, above-normal temperatures in recent weeks accelerated the opening of cotton bolls, significantly reducing expected gains in per-acre yields, he said.

Ginners had anticipated arrivals of approximately 1.1m bales between September 16 and September 30, but actual receipts amounted to around 820,000 bales.

During the fortnight, Punjab recorded 354,000 bales against 446,000 bales in the same period last year, while Sindh arrivals stood at 466,000 bales compared with 594,000 bales a year earlier.

The slower inflow has increased uncertainty surrounding the final size of the domestic cotton crop, with implications for textile manufacturers, exporters and prices in the local market.

A significant difference also persists between the production figures reported by the PCGA and Punjab’s Crop Reporting Service. While the PCGA recorded Punjab arrivals of 1.215m bales by September 30, the provincial service estimated production at 2.492 million bales.

Meanwhile, textile mills had purchased 2.727m bales from ginners by the end of September, while exporters had procured 96,600 bales. Approximately 385,000 bales remained available for sale, with 459 ginning factories operating nationwide.

On the international front, global cotton production is also projected to decline in the 2026-27 cotton year, potentially supporting prices. The International Cotton Advisory Committee has estimated global output at 25.94m metric tons, down 3.8% from 26.98m tons in 2025-26, Ehsan-ul-Haq said.

The combination of slower domestic arrivals and a lower global production outlook could influence Pakistan’s cotton supply position and increase pressure on prices, with the possibility of greater reliance on imported cotton.

Separately, the Pakistan Cotton Standards Institute, operating under the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, has arranged three-day training workshops in various cities to improve cotton quality assessment among industry stakeholders.

The initiative aims to strengthen quality standards for locally produced cotton and support export competitiveness, Ehsan-ul-Haq said, highlighting the importance of improved production practices and quality management for the textile sector.

He also pointed to undocumented trading as a structural challenge, estimating that between 1.5m and 2m bales are traded through undocumented channels annually in Pakistan.

According to Ehsan-ul-Haq, high taxation on the cotton industry has contributed to the expansion of informal transactions, while stricter enforcement of digital invoicing by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) could help bring more trading activity into the documented economy.

Greater documentation could improve visibility into domestic cotton trading volumes and strengthen tax compliance across the supply chain.

Ehsan-ul-Haq said measures to revive cotton production, improve quality standards and address structural challenges would be important for strengthening the sector and supporting Pakistan’s textile industry and cotton exports.

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