Trade gap widens to $3.56bn in September

October 02, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan's merchandise trade deficit widened to $3.56 billion in September 2026, up 7.99% from August and 6.15% from a year earlier.

Exports came in at $2.94bn, up 16.07% month-on-month from $2.53bn and 17.61% year-on-year from $2.50bn, according to provisional data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Imports climbed to $6.49bn, up 11.5% from August's $5.82bn and 11.05% from $5.85bn in September 2025.

In dollar terms, exports added $407 million over the month while imports added $670m. That left the monthly gap $263m wider than in August, even though exports grew at the faster percentage rate.

Exports covered about 45% of the import bill in September, compared with roughly 43% in both August and the same month last year.

First quarter picture

The cumulative numbers are less comfortable. In July–September of FY27, the trade deficit reached $10.79bn, up 15.13% from $9.37bn in the same period of FY26. That is an additional $1.42bn of external financing need in three months.

Imports for the quarter rose 13.21% to $19.22bn, an increase of $2.24bn. Exports grew 10.84% to $8.42bn, an increase of $824m. Export cover of imports for the quarter slipped to about 44% from about 45% a year ago.

The quarterly totals imply a July deficit of around $3.95bn, so September's gap, while wider than August's, remains below the level at which the fiscal year opened.

In rupee terms

Exports stood at Rs815.1bn in September, up 15.91% MoM and 15.82% YoY. Imports were Rs1.80 trillion, up 11.38% MoM and 9.38% YoY. The deficit was Rs988.4bn, up 7.9% from August and 4.59% from a year earlier.

For the quarter, the rupee deficit crossed Rs3tr, up 13.22% from Rs2.65tr.

Year-on-year growth is lower in rupee terms than in dollar terms across all three lines, reflecting a firmer average exchange rate than a year ago: about Rs277 per dollar implied by the PBS figures, against about Rs282 in September 2025.

For the external account, the monthly export rebound is the positive, but the quarter's $1.42bn wider goods gap will have to be absorbed by remittances and financial inflows if the current account is to hold.

A wider gap would raise pressure on the rupee and on reserves, a variable the State Bank watches in setting policy.

Copyright Mettis Link News