Trade gap widens to $3.56bn in September

October 02, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan's merchandise trade deficit widened to $3.56 billion in September 2026, up 7.99% from August and 6.15% from a year earlier.

Imports rose faster in absolute terms than exports, which had one of their stronger months, according to provisional data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Exports came in at $2.94bn, up 16.07% month-on-month from $2.53bn and 17.61% year-on-year from $2.50bn.

Imports climbed to $6.49bn, up 11.5% from August's $5.82bn and 11.05% from $5.85bn in September 2025.

In dollar terms, exports added $407 million over the month while imports added $670m. That left the monthly gap $263m wider than in August, even though exports grew at the faster percentage rate.

Exports covered about 45% of the import bill in September, compared with roughly 43% in both August and the same month last year.

First quarter picture

The cumulative numbers are less comfortable. In July–September of FY27, the trade deficit reached $10.79bn, up 15.13% from $9.37bn in the same period of FY26. That is an additional $1.42bn of external financing need in three months.

Imports for the quarter rose 13.21% to $19.22bn, an increase of $2.24bn. Exports grew 10.84% to $8.42bn, an increase of $824m. Export cover of imports for the quarter slipped to about 44% from about 45% a year ago.

The quarterly totals imply a July deficit of around $3.95bn, so September's gap, while wider than August's, remains below the level at which the fiscal year opened.

In rupee terms

Exports stood at Rs815.1bn in September, up 15.91% MoM and 15.82% YoY. Imports were Rs1.80 trillion, up 11.38% MoM and 9.38% YoY. The deficit was Rs988.4bn, up 7.9% from August and 4.59% from a year earlier.

For the quarter, the rupee deficit crossed Rs3tr, up 13.22% from Rs2.65tr.

Year-on-year growth is lower in rupee terms than in dollar terms across all three lines, reflecting a firmer average exchange rate than a year ago: about Rs277 per dollar implied by the PBS figures, against about Rs282 in September 2025.

For the external account, the monthly export rebound is the positive, but the quarter's $1.42bn wider goods gap will have to be absorbed by remittances and financial inflows if the current account is to hold.

A wider gap would raise pressure on the rupee and on reserves, a variable the State Bank watches in setting policy.

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