September inflation rises to 10.3%

October 01, 2026 (MLN): The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.3% on a year-on-year basis in September 2026, easing from 11.1% in the previous month but remaining well above the 5.8% recorded in September 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose by 1.3% in September 2026, compared with an increase of 1.2% in the previous month and 2.1% in September 2025, data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed.

On a 3MFY27 basis, the average CPI stands at 10.2% compared to 4.3% in the same period last year.

Urban CPI inflation rose by 10.1% YoY in September, down from 10.4% in August, against 5.7% a year earlier. Rural inflation eased more sharply to 10.5% YoY from 12.2% in August, compared with 5.9% in September 2025.

On a monthly basis, urban inflation increased by 1.3%, up from 0.9% in August and below the 1.6% rise a year earlier. Rural inflation rose by 1.2%, slowing from 1.6% in the previous month and 2.8% in September 2025.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI), which tracks essential and fast-moving items, increased by 8.4% YoY in September, down from 9.5% in August, though above the 4.5% increase a year earlier. On a monthly basis, SPI inflation rose by 1.0%, compared with 0.9% in August and 2.0% in September 2025.

Wholesale price pressures intensified, with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rising by 13.3% YoY, up from 11.8% in August and 0.6% in September 2025. On a monthly basis, the WPI increased by 1.9%, compared with 2.0% in the previous month and 0.5% a year earlier.

Core inflation readings were mixed. Urban non-food non-energy (NFNE) inflation eased to 8.6% YoY from 8.8% in August, against 7.0% in September 2025, while rural NFNE slowed to 8.1% from 8.5%, compared with 7.8% a year earlier. On a monthly basis, urban NFNE rose by 0.2%, down from 0.5% in August, and rural NFNE rose by 0.2%, down from 0.6%.

The 20% weighted trimmed mean, however, edged higher. The urban trimmed mean rose to 9.4% YoY from 8.9% in August, and the rural trimmed mean rose to 9.4% from 9.1%. On a monthly basis, the urban trimmed mean increased by 0.3%, compared with 0.4% in the previous month, while the rural measure rose by 0.4%, slowing from 1.1%.

The September data shows headline, urban, rural and SPI inflation easing on a year-on-year basis after August's spike, even as wholesale prices and trimmed mean core measures continued to firm, while NFNE core inflation softened.

Copyright Mettis Link News