Pakistan GDP growth rises to 3.04% in FY25

October 8, 2025 (MLN): The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved the provisional GDP estimates for the fourth quarter and the updated annual figures for the financial year 2024-25, reflecting an improvement in overall economic growth.

According to the latest data, Pakistan’s economy expanded by 3.04% in FY25, up from the previously estimated 2.68%, indicating a stronger-than-expected recovery in the latter part of the year.

Quarter-wise, the revised growth rates show a steady upward trend, with GDP increasing by 1.80% in Q1, 1.94% in Q2, and 2.79% in Q3, compared to earlier estimates of 1.37%, 1.53%, and 2.40%, respectively.

The economy recorded a notable 5.66% growth during Q4 FY25, marking a significant acceleration in activity.

The size of the economy is now estimated at US$ 407.2 billion, while per capita income has reached US$ 1,812, according to the NAC’s revised figures.

The highlight of the report from the 114th NAC meeting is the robust performance recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY 2025, during which the economy posted a remarkable growth of 5.66%. The size of the economy for FY 2025 now stands at US$ 407.2 billion, with per capita income reaching US$ 1812.

The powerful 5.66% growth in Q4 was largely propelled by an overwhelming performance in the Industrial sector, which grew by 19.95%. This dramatic surge reverses the negative trends seen in the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

A key driver was the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply industry, which posted an exceptional growth rate of +121.38% due to higher subsidies, a low base effect, and a decline in deflator.

The Construction industry also contributed positively with a 17.65% increase.

The Services sector, the largest contributor to the economy, grew by 3.72% in Q4, while the Agriculture sector remained relatively flat at 0.18% in the final quarter.

Full-Year Sectoral Revisions

The updated annual growth rate of 3.04% was secured by improved estimates across all major sectors:

• Industry saw its annual growth updated to 5.26% (up from 4.77%), benefiting from improvements in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), particularly in automobiles (+46.15%), transport equipment (+36.6%), and pharmaceuticals (+2.74%).

• Agriculture was revised up significantly to 1.51% (from 0.56%), mainly on the back of double-digit growth in "Other Crops," including green fodder (+16%), vegetables (+12%), and fruits (+10%).

• Services achieved an annual growth rate of 3.00% (up from 2.91%), supported by improvements in finance & insurance activities (+3.90%) and public administration and social security (+9.88%).

Summary of updated GDP growth rates (FY2025)

The table below summarizes the updated growth figures for the major economic sectors for the full year and across all four quarters of FY 2025.

The committee expressed its appreciation for the efforts of the National Accounts team, the Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan for their role in preparing these comprehensive estimates.

The improved growth trajectory reflects a combination of stronger industrial performance, better agricultural output, and recovery in services during the final quarter of the fiscal year.

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