Pakistan BCI falls to 47.4 in April 2026

April 27, 2026 (MLN): The overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined by 0.3 points, falling to 47.4 in April 2026, the latest results of the Business Confidence Survey (BCS), conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in collaboration with the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), revealed.

This decline pushed the overall BCI below the 50-threshold, indicating that negative views outweighed positive ones, and was primarily driven by a deterioration in the Services sector, despite a recovery in Industry confidence.

Specifically, the BCI for the Industry sector increased by 1.1 points to 47.0, while confidence in the Services sector fell by 0.8 points to 47.5.

According to the survey report, the headline index "Overall Business Confidence" is comprised of two sub-indices; "Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI)" and "Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI)". It is worth mentioning here that the overall BCI is a weighted average of the Industry and Services sectors with 0.25 and 0.75 weights respectively.

Current Business Confidence

The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), which is based on the general economic conditions in the country over the past six months, recorded a notable decline of 3.7 points to 45.2 in April 2026 compared to the previous wave, falling further below the neutral threshold of 50.

Expected Business Confidence

As far as the expectations regarding economic and business conditions in the next six months are concerned, the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) showed a marked improvement in April, rising by 3.0 points to 49.6, suggesting that while current sentiment weakened, businesses remain cautiously hopeful about the near-term outlook.

Purchasing Managers Index

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased by 1.7 points to 53.1, showing a partial recovery in business activity following the dip in the previous wave.

Among the sub-components, Business Activity edged up to 51.7, Total Employees improved to 51.9, crossing back above the neutral threshold, and Order Books rose to 54.4, while Raw Material Purchases strengthened to 55.1. Speed of Suppliers' Delivery, however, eased to 52.5 from 51.4 in the previous wave.

Inflation Expectations

Regarding inflation, the survey revealed a notable rise in the proportion of businesses expecting higher prices in the current wave, amid prevailing geopolitical uncertainties.

Overall, 72.8% of businesses expected higher prices, a significant increase from 68.8% in March 2026. At the sector level, inflation expectations in the Industry sector rose sharply from 68.0% to 72.8%, while the Services sector also recorded an increase from 69.7% to 72.7%.

Employment

The survey highlighted broadly stable employment perceptions in the current wave. The Current Employment Index marginally declined to 51.5 from 51.8 in the previous wave, showing near-neutral sentiment in hiring conditions across both sectors.

The Expected Employment Index, however, improved to 53.2, indicating cautious optimism about near-term hiring activity.

Capacity Utilization

The Average Current Capacity Utilization (ACCU) of the Manufacturing sector (within the Industry sector) increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.2% in April 2026, maintaining its position above the long-term average a positive signal for industrial output and productive capacity in the months ahead.

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