Halal power race: Who will define the $1.8tr standard?

May 25, 2026 (MLN): Halal certification, once a niche religious compliance matter, has quietly evolved into one of the most strategically charged regulatory battlegrounds in global trade.

According to a new deep-dive analysis by BMI Fitch Solutions, global halal food and drink spending is forecast to grow from $1.3 trillion in 2026 to $1.8tr by 2030, expanding at 6.9% annually outpacing both non-halal food spending growth of 4.3% and the global headline rate of 4.7%.

The stakes are straightforward: whichever country's halal standards gain widest international recognition stands to make trade smoother for its own exporters, attract halal-linked investment, and position itself as an indispensable hub in a rapidly deepening global supply chain.

Yet despite the existence of umbrella bodies like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, no single globally accepted halal standard exists today.

A certificate recognised in Kuala Lumpur may carry little weight in Riyadh. This fragmentation is the central problem and the central opportunity.

Indonesia

No country can match Indonesia's sheer demographic leverage. Home to roughly 242 million Muslims, it is the world's most populous Muslim nation.

Since 2024, Indonesia has made halal certification mandatory for all domestic food products, with imported goods facing a final compliance deadline of October 2026.

The logic is powerful: if international manufacturers want access to Indonesia's enormous consumer base, they must align with Indonesian standards.

But execution has muddied the picture. The country's certification architecture involves both the state authority BPJPH and the influential Ulema Council, which retains authority over religious rulings on halal compliance.

For foreign firms, navigating this dual structure can feel slow and opaque. In halal certification, efficiency matters as much as scale and Indonesia has yet to fully resolve that tension.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia brings something no other country can replicate: custodianship of Islam's two holiest cities.

In a domain where trust is inseparable from religious legitimacy, that symbolic weight is a genuine competitive asset, reinforced annually by millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims keeping the kingdom at the centre of the global Muslim experience.

Yet religious prestige does not automatically translate into regulatory supremacy.

Halal trade is governed by technical specifications and bilateral recognition agreements domains where symbolism only carries so far.

With a population of just 35.2 million, Saudi Arabia also lacks the market leverage of larger neighbours, limiting its ability to compel global manufacturers to align with its standards.

Malaysia

If Indonesia has size and Saudi Arabia has symbolism, Malaysia has something arguably more durable in trade terms: institutional credibility.

Its JAKIM certification system, operating since 1994, is widely regarded as the global benchmark for rigour and professional administration.

That first-mover advantage still matters in a fragmented market hungry for trusted reference points, and Malaysia's broader halal ecosystem spanning Islamic finance, pharmaceuticals and tourism strengthens its case further.

The limitation is coercive power. Malaysia cannot compel international firms to adopt its standards the way Indonesia can through sheer market demand. Credibility is a powerful asset, but not a mandate.

The Rest of the Field

Türkiye's advantage lies in geography and diplomatic reach. Through the Organization of Turkic States a bloc of over 170 million people Ankara can quietly shape halal norms within a Turkic regulatory sphere.

But it lacks the reputational capital of Malaysia, the religious authority of Saudi Arabia, or the market pull of Indonesia.

Iran, despite a large Muslim population of 93.2m, faces a structural ceiling.

As a Shia-majority state, its religious institutions do not carry automatic legitimacy in the overwhelmingly Sunni environments that dominate global halal trade.

Combined with broader geopolitical isolation, the prospect of Tehran becoming a universal reference point remains remote.

Egypt has made deliberate moves to build a national halal export architecture, but regulatory inconsistency including the removal of halal certification requirements on UK dairy imports in 2025 has undermined its credibility.

Nigeria, with approximately 135.7 million Muslims, represents a longer-term demographic story as a potential anchor for West African halal development. For now, both remain emerging markets rather than recognised global authorities.

India and China each bring vast Muslim populations to this contest, but both face the same structural obstacle: in a domain where religious legitimacy is foundational, non-Muslim-majority countries face credibility limitations that commercial scale cannot easily overcome.

In Western markets, the picture is a fragmented patchwork of private certifiers and community organisations with uneven international recognition, leaving businesses seeking export access to pursue certification from already-established players like JAKIM.

The Verdict

No single country is close to becoming the unchallenged global halal standard-setter. Indonesia has the scale but must resolve its governance complexity.

Malaysia has the credibility but lacks coercive leverage. Saudi Arabia has the symbolism but not the volume.

The more likely near-term outcome is a regionalised halal world a Southeast Asian cluster, a Gulf sphere, a Turkic bloc developing in parallel rather than converging around a single dominant model. For exporters navigating this landscape, the fragmentation remains a burden.

For the countries competing within it, the contest remains very much open.

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