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Weekly Economic Roundup

October 25, 2020 (MLN): The financial snapshot of the country is brought to light with the economic and financial data releases over the course of the week.

  • The Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group decreased by 0.23% during the week ended Oct 22, 2020 while the SPI increased by 8.76% compared to the corresponding period from last year.

  • Pakistan remained on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) as it has been unable to comply with 6 of the 27 points in the global watchdog’s action plan, says President FATF, Dr. Marcus Pleyer, while addressing a press conference at Paris on Friday.

  • The gross sale of securities by overseas investors during the week ended October 16, 2020 was recorded at Rs.9.6 billion, which is only 3.6 percent higher than the figures recorded last week.

  • Pakistan's Forex Reserves increased by USD 286.10 Million or 1.5% and the total liquid foreign reserves held by the country stood at USD 19,301.60 Million on Oct 16, 2020.

  • The non-government sector has borrowed a net sum of Rs.18.31 billion during the week ended October 16, 2020, which brings the cumulative net retirement for the ongoing fiscal year FY2021 to Rs.122.85 billion. The net retirement as of the prior week was recorded at Rs.141.15 billion.

  • The government of Pakistan has retired Rs.187.48 billion during the week ended October 16, 2020, which brings its total net borrowing for the ongoing fiscal year 2021 to Rs.72.04 billion. As of the prior week, the government had borrowed a net sum of Rs.259.52 billion.

  • Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) decided that the supply of RLNG shall continue to Agritech and Fatima Fertilizer for the Rabi Season 2020-21 till the end of November 2020.

  • The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved $304 million in financing for Punjab Resource Improvement and Digital Effectiveness Program (PRIDE). The program supports efficiencies in public resource management that generate savings and create fiscal space for growth-generating investments in the Punjab province.

  • Pakistan’s Current Account was in surplus of $73 mn during Sept, bringing surplus for 1QFY21 to $792 million compared to a deficit of $1,492 million during the same time last year.

  • Pakistan’s trade deficit in services stood at $77 million during the month of September, signifying an increase of 6% as compared to the previous month and 20% as compared to the same period of last year.

  • The imports of vehicles from foreign countries increased by 43% MoM to USD 152 million during the month of September 2020, compared to USD 106 million in August 2020, revealed trade figures released recently by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

  • The exports of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products witnessed an increase of 26.46% MoM and 4% YoY to value at USD 82.98 million during the month of September 2020.

  • Pakistan's outstanding debts as of September 30, 2020 stand at a heaping sum of Rs.23 trillion whereas total debt at the end of prior month was Rs.22.67 trillion, meaning that around Rs.332.42 billion were additionally borrowed during this month alone.

  • The total exports from Pakistan during the month of September 2020 amounted to Rs. 313.3 billion, showing an increase of 17.97% as against Rs. 265.6 billion in August 2020 and of 13.64% against Rs. 275.7 billion in September 2019.

  • The overall imports into Pakistan during the month of September 2020 amounted to Rs. 716.7 billion, showing an increase of 28.89% against Rs. 556 billion in August 2020 and 21.86% as compared to Rs. 588.1 billion in September 2019.

  • Pakistan’s trade deficit during 1QFY21 drastically increased by 2.6% YoY to USD 5.84 billion as exports depicted a meagre decline of 65 bps to USD 5.47 billion compared to 1QFY20, whereas, imports during the period increased by 1% YoY to USD 11.3 billion compared to the same quarter last year, shows recently published PBS data.

  • China emerged as the largest direct foreign investor in Pakistan during September 2020, with a net direct investment of $97 million, followed by the Hongkong and Malta who invested $22.8 million and $18.5 million respectively, according to SBP data issued.

 

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Weekly Market Roundup

October 25, 2020 (MLN): The KSE-100 index gained around 1,101 points during the departed week and closed at 41,266-mark i.e. nearly 2.74% percent higher than the closing of the previous week.

Despite the not-so-fruitful outcome from the meeting with the FATF, the week began as well as ended on a positive note on account of improving external situation and PKR stability, which smoothened cost pressures for import reliant sectors, AKD Securities said in its weekly analysis.

Moreover, the earnings outperformance for the latest reported period for Banks and Fertilizers, where resumption of payouts for Banks was a notable catalyst, added to the positive sentiments. Other developments during the week included the current account surplus of US $73 million posted by Pakistan for the month of September.

Furthermore, the ECC approved supply of RLNG till the end of November 2020, ensuring the supply of RLNG to fulfill the requirements of two fertilizer plants namely Agritech and Fatima Fertilizer, the report added.

Cement, Commercial Banks, Fertilizer and Automobile Assembler emerged as the best performing sectors during the week, as they contributed around 251, 241, 229, and 74 points respectively to the benchmark index.

Company-wise, the scrips of ENGRO, BAHL, LUCK, EFERT, and MEBL emerged as the top performers as they brought in 143, 129, 66, 61 and 58 points respectively.

During the week, 77 companies traded in green while 22 landed in the red zone. The All Share Market Cap increased by nearly USD 1.23 billion, i.e. 2.82% higher than the previous week.

Figures released by NCCPL showed that foreign investors sold USD 6.87 million worth of stocks during the week with foreign corporates doing the bulk of selling @ USD 9.61 million.

On the local front, Mutual Funds purchased USD 7.61 million worth of stocks, followed by USD 4.7 million worth of stocks bought by companies. Other significant transactions included USD 7.7 million worth of stocks sold by Banks/DFIs.

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Key Pakistan Market Stats and Economic Indicators

Market Data and Economic Indicators

Weekly Performance
 Oct 23, 2020Oct 16, 2020
PKR InterBank161.3698162.4942
KSE100 Index41,266.0040,164.02
Avg Daily Volume465,576,973295,628,213
Gold (Karachi) Rs/10 gm98,89499,151
KIBOR 6M7.347.35
10Y PIB10.0210.25
EUR1.18541.1709
GBP1.3041.2905
CHF0.90390.9141
JPY104.727105.38
GOLD1901.551898.4
NY Light Crude39.8840.85
Open Market Rates
 Oct 23, 2020Oct 16, 2020
USD162.20163.50
EUR192.61191.79
GBP211.69211.47
JPY1.54971.5525
AED44.2044.54
SAR43.3343.67
SBP Data
T-Bill Auction Cutoff YieldOct 21, 2020Oct 07, 2020
3M7.17507.1898
6M7.20007.2189
12MBids Rejected7.2990
PIB Auction Cutoff YieldOct 14, 2020Sep 16, 2020
3Y8.24008.2000
5YBids Rejected8.4500
10YBids Rejected8.9900
15Y10.0000Bids Rejected
20Y10.549810.5498
Interest Rate CorridorJun 26, 2020May 18, 2020
SBP Policy Rate7.008.00
SBP Reverse Repo Rate8.009.00
SBP Repo Rate6.007.00
Weekly Indicators
 Oct 16, 2020Oct 09, 2020
SBP FX Reserves *12,066.6011,798.40
Bank FX Reseves *7,235.007,217.10
Total FX Reserves *19,301.6019,015.50
 Oct 22, 2020Oct 15, 2020
SPI (Combined Group)141.04141.36
Change - WoW (pct)-0.020.45
Change - YOY (pct)8.769.20
Monthly Indicators
 SeptemberAugust
Consumer Price Index (Base 2015-16)138.32136.23
Change - MOM (pct)1.530.63
Change - YOY (pct)9.038.21
WholeSale Price Index (Base 2015-16)146.48144.96
Change - MOM (pct)1.051.27
Change - YOY (pct)4.263.26
Sensitive Price Indicator (Base 2015-16)137.04134.57
Change - MOM (pct)1.840.94
Change - YOY (pct)9.008.66
 SeptemberAugust
Exports *1,873.001,584.00
Imports *4,264.003,324.00
Trade Balance *-2,391.00-1,740.00
 SeptemberAugust
Home Remittances *2,283.702,095.21
 SeptemberAugust
Total Foreign Investment *178.70102.94
 SeptemberAugust
Current Account Balance *73.00211.00
FY21792.00719.00
FY20-1,492.00-1,214.00
 AugustJuly
Large Scale Manufacturing Index126.32135.50
Change - MOM (pct)-6.7710.65
Change - YOY (pct)-1.106.08
Quarterly Indicators
 Jun 30, 2020Mar 31, 2020
Pakistan's External Debt *112,858.18109,925.12
Annual Indicators
 FY20FY19
GDP Growth Rate-0.381.91
Agriculture2.670.58
Manufacturing-0.275.43
Commodity Sector-0.05-0.90
Services Sector-0.593.75
Trade Balance * (July - June)-23,183.00-31,805.00
Worker Remittances * (July - June)23,120.9721,739.40
Foreign Investment * (July - June)2,038.21-54.80
Annual Inflation Rate % (July - June)10.746.80
* Amount in USD Million

 

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FATF acknowledges Pakistan’s progress on across all action plan...

October 24, 2020: Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has acknowledged that Pakistan has made progress across all action plan items and has now “largely addressed”21 of the 27 action items.

According to Foreign Office, the FATF reviewed Pakistan’s progress on FATF action plan in its Plenary meeting today.

The plenary meeting decided to maintain status quo with respect to classification of Pakistan, for the time being.

The FATF has taken note of the significant progress made by Pakistan on a number of action plan items. Recognizing Pakistan’s sustained and irreversible efforts on implementation of FATF Action Plan, the FATF has upgraded overall 9 Action Plan items in its October 2020 Plenary. There is no item remaining in the incomplete” category. It is pertinent to mention here, prior to this plenary, Pakistan had addressed 14 out of 27 items and now FATF reviewed compliance of remaining 13 Action Plan Items during current plenary.

The action plan items that have been addressed by Pakistan include highly important areas of Financial Sector, illegal Hawala/Hundi, cross-border currency regime, international cooperation in terrorist financing cases, amendments to the Anti-Terrorism Act, implementation of targeted financial sanctions by financial institutions, applying sanctions for AML/CFT violations, and controlling facilities and services owned or controlled by designated persons and entities. This is indicative of the confidence of FATF on the efforts of Pakistani Government.

Pakistan shall continue to make efforts to complete the remaining items in line with its strategy by February 2021. FATF will undertake the next review of Pakistan’s Progress in February 2021.

The Plenary meetings of FATF were held virtually from 18-23 of this month, where its members discussed a variety of topics including Pakistan’s progress.

The Pakistan team led by Minister of Industries and Production Muhammad Hammad Azhar, attended these virtual meetings. Pakistan presented its case in an effective manner and also reaffirmed its political commitment to continue with the efforts to complete the Action Plan.

Radio Pakistan

Sale of securities by foreign investors rises by 3.6...

October 24, 2020 (MLN): The gross sale of securities by overseas investors during the week ended October 16, 2020 was recorded at Rs.9.6 billion, which is only 3.6 percent higher than the figures recorded last week.

According to a weekly report on Specially Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the total purchase of securities stood at Rs.6.8 billion, which is 13.5 percent lower than the prior week.

Consequently, the net sale of securities for the week clocked in at Rs.2.83 billion, i.e. around Rs.1.4 billion lower than last week's numbers.

Over the week, the overall purchase of securities declined by Rs.1.06 billion whereas the net sale of securities increased by Rs.330.83 million.

Apart from this, the inflow of remittance into these accounts stood at Rs.2.18 billion, while its outflow has been reported at Rs.6.14 billion.

The closing balance of SCRA was recorded at Rs.28.58 billion, which marks a decline of Rs.869.33 million over the week.

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