November 29, 2023 (MLN): Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate witnessed a recovery in 1QFY24, recording at 2.13% as compared to 0.96% in 1QFY23, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Tuesday.

These estimates were approved in the 107th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting held on the same day.

To meet the structural benchmark under the IMF-SBA program, PBS held meetings with stakeholders and data providers and presented the revised GDP numbers for FY23 and 1QFY24 before the NAC today. 

The NAC also approved introduction of quarterly national accounts in the statistical system of the country.

Notably, for FY23, the revised growth rate of GDP is now estimated at -0.17%, which was provisionally reported at 0.29%.

Industry-wise

Moreover, the 107th NAC approved the industry-wise methodology of compiling the Quarterly GDP as well as series of quarterly growth rates of GDP for various industries from Q1 2016-17 to Q1 2023 by taking 2015-16 as base year.

For 1QFY24, agriculture has shown a growth of 5.06%, industry 2.48% and services 0.82%.

Agriculture

In agriculture, crops are posting healthy growth of 6.13% including 11.16% growth in important crops.

The major driver for growth in important crops is the increase in sowing area in comparison with the last year.

For instance, the sowing area for rice, cotton and maize increased by 21%, 11%, and 5%, repsectively.

It declined by 11% for sugarcane which is offset by the other three major crops.

Industry

Industry, after witnessing a continuous decline in three quarters in FY23 except a modest growth in Q2, has changed its direction in 1QFY24 by posting a growth of 2.48%. 

Mining and quarrying industry is showing positive growth of 2.15% on the basis of quarterly production of mining sector.

LSM growth is on the basis of Quantum Index of manufacturing (QIM) which showed a growth of 0.93% in 1QFY24.

A growth of 0.08% has been reported 

in Electricity generation and distribution, gas distribution and water supply.

Construction industry growth has been estimated at 1.73% on the basis of output of construction indicators. 

Production of cement has increased by 15.38% during Q1 of 2023-24 as compared to the same quarter last year.

Similarly increase in other indicators has also been witnessed.

Iron & steel observed negative growth of 2.20% during 1QFY24 however its impact has been offset by other indicators.

Services

During the quarter, the overall growth in services is 0.82%.

Wholesale and Retail Trade, which is based on output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports has been estimated at 3.05% because of positive growth in agriculture and industry.

Transport is showing a growth of 1.7% which is based on the quarterly data reported by the sources. Information & Communication, which remained negative in most of the quarters last year has changed its 

direction by posting 2.4% growth mainly because of low base and quarterly information received from the sources.

Finance and Insurance industry has a growth of -12.79% because of decline in output of insurance companies, exchange brokers, mercantile brokers and also high growth in deflator.

Public administration has reported -16.65% growth in the quarter.

Further, high deflator also resulted in decline in constant prices.

Negative growth in both education and human health & social work activities are mostly driven by the decline in government budget data along with high deflator.

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Posted on: 2023-11-28T23:51:13+05:00