Oil prices rise amid U.S. sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ cuts

March 21, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices rose on Friday, and were set for second consecutive weekly gains, as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and a new plan from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to cut output raised bets on tighter supply.

Brent crude futures increased by $0.30, or 0.42%, to $72.30 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $0.27, or 0.40%, to $68.34 per barrel by [11:35 am] PST.  

On a weekly basis, both Brent and WTI were on track to rise about 2%, their biggest weekly gains since the first week of 2025.

The United States Treasury on Thursday announced new Iran-related sanctions, which for the first time targeted an independent Chinese refiner among other entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude oil to China.

The sanctions on Chinese entities were "a clear escalation in sanctions policy", analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Friday.

"While the physical implications are minimal, we think it reasonable that risk premium here is taken more seriously," they wrote.

That marked Washington's fourth round of sanctions against Iran since U.S. President Donald Trump in February promised to reimpose a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran, pledging to drive the country's oil exports to zero.

Analysts at ANZ Bank said they expect a 1 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction in Iranian crude oil exports because of tighter sanctions, as Reuters reported.

Vessel tracking service Kpler pegged Iranian crude oil exports at over 1.8m bpd in February.

Oil prices were also supported by a new OPEC+ plan announced Thursday for seven members to further cut output to make up for producing more than agreed levels.

The plan would represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd, and will last until June 2026.

OPEC+ earlier this month confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, reversing some of the 5.85m bpd of output cuts agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

While the group shares a plan for compensation cuts, it certainly doesn't mean members will follow it.

A handful of members have consistently produced above their target production levels, ING analysts said in a note on Friday.

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