Indonesia’s trade surplus likely narrowed in March

April 18, 2025 (MLN): Indonesia's trade surplus is expected to have narrowed month-on-month in March due to a likely contraction in exports and higher imports amid the Eid-al Fitr festival when typically consumption rises, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The largest economy in Southeast Asia has been enjoying a monthly trade surplus since mid-2020, driven by a commodity boom. In February, the surplus was bigger than expected as a surge in palm oil shipments boosted exports.

The median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Reuters between April 14 and April 17 showed the surplus at $2.64 billion last month, down from $3.12 billion in February.

Exports in March were seen in contraction at 3.4% year-on-year after posting 14.05 per cent growth in February, while imports were expected to rise 6.6%, much higher than 2.3% in February.

Economists have warned that individual implementation of U.S. tariffs, which is currently under a 90-day pause, and their impact on global trade could hurt Indonesia's shipments going forward.

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