Oil surges to 4-year high on war fears

April 30, 2026 (MLN): Global oil markets rallied sharply on Thursday, with futures for the international benchmark Brent crude climbing 6.84% to settle at $126.10 per barrel, marked their highest level in four years, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran stoked fears of renewed conflict and supply disruptions.

The rally follows reports that the U.S. military is preparing to brief Donald Trump on potential military strategies involving Iran.

Currently, Brent crude futures are down by $4.61, or 3.91%, to $113.42 per barrel, according to data by Mettis Global.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are up by $2.61 or 2.44%, to $109.49 per barrel by [11:40 pm] PST.

According to sources cited by Axios, the U.S. Central Command is expected to outline possible courses of action amid the deepening standoff, as reported by CNBC.

Tensions have further intensified after Washington signaled it would maintain its blockade on Iranian oil exports.

The decision comes after rejecting Tehran’s proposal to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a move widely seen as prolonging the supply squeeze in global markets.

Market data from London Stock Exchange Group shows Brent crude futures have climbed to levels not seen since early 2022, showing tightening supply conditions driven by the Middle East crisis.

Oil shipments through the Hormuz corridor have plunged to just 4% of normal volumes, exacerbating global supply constraints.

The bank warned that continued restrictions on Iranian exports, coupled with limited storage capacity, could deepen disruptions if the blockade remains in place.

While the United Arab Emirates is expected to gradually increase output following its exit from OPEC, any meaningful supply relief will take time and is unlikely to offset near-term shortages.

In a strongly worded social media post, Trump issued a warning to Iran, urging the country to act swiftly in negotiations, signaling a hardening stance that has added to market volatility.

Market participants say oil prices are currently being shaped by a complex mix of physical supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and investor sentiment.

Despite some cushioning from strategic reserves and oil already in transit, refined product markets remain under pressure.

Diesel prices have surged sharply, while logistical bottlenecks continue to strain supply chains even in the event of a temporary ceasefire.

On the demand side, Goldman Sachs highlighted emerging risks, estimating that global oil consumption in April may be around 3.6 million barrels per day lower than February levels. The decline is largely driven by weaker demand for jet fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Looking ahead, market experts warn that prolonged disruptions could push oil prices into the $140–$150 per barrel range. However, such elevated prices may ultimately dampen demand, potentially stabilizing the market over time.

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