CPI spikes to 29.2% in November

December 01, 2023 (MLN): The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of November 2023 spiked to 29.2% YoY, compared to 26.8% YoY in the last month and 23.8% YoY in November 2022, the latest data issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday showed.

On a sequential basis, the CPI has surged by 2.7% compared to an increase of 1% in the previous month, and the 12-month average of 2.01%.

The inflation figures came in hotter than our estimates of 28.73% YoY.

This jump is fueled by the long-overdue gas price hike, with the 'Housing, water, electricity, gas & fuels' group showing a significant jump of 10.96% MoM.

Accordingly, this takes the average yearly inflation of 5MFY24 to 28.62% YoY compared to 25.16% YoY in 5MFY23.

In November 2023, the Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased to 30.4% on a year-on-year basis, as compared to an increase of 25.5% in the previous month and 21.6% in November 2022.

Similarly, it surged by 4.3% MoM in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month and an increase of 0.4% in November 2022.

To note, the surge in gas prices were mainly felt by the Urban class, as it saw a staggering 17.6% MoM increase in the 'Housing, water, electricity, gas & fuels' group during the review month.

Meanwhile, the Rural CPI inflation rose to 27.5% on a year-on-year basis in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 28.7% in the previous month and 27.5% in November 2022.

Month-on-month, it rose by 0.4% in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.9% in the previous month and an increase of 1.3% in November 2022.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation, on a year-on-year basis, increased to 30.6% in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 34.2% a month earlier and 27.1% in November 2022.

On a MoM basis, it increased by 3.3% in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.2% a month earlier and an increase of 6.1% in November 2022.

Furthermore, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a YoY basis climbed to 26.4% in November 2023 as compared to an increase of 24.6% a month earlier and an increase of 27.7% in November 2022.

Similarly, on a sequential basis, it increased by 1.4% in November 2023 as compared to a decrease of 1.9% a month earlier and no change in corresponding month of last year i.e. November 2022.

With the CPI-based inflation rate at 29.2% and the policy rate at 22%, the real interest now stands at -7.2%.

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