China shines in Asia as holiday data offsets US inflation worries

February 19, 2024 (MLN): Chinese stocks were buoyant after Lunar New Year but other Asian markets were mixed on Monday as a hot US inflation report rekindled worries over the timing of Fed rate cuts, as APP reported.

Shares fell in Tokyo and Hong Kong after a larger-than-expected rise in US wholesale prices on Friday dealt a blow to hopes of an early interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing Wall Street to end in the red.

But Shanghai and Shenzhen gained as traders returned from a week-long break. Markets in Seoul and Sydney also rose, while Singapore started the day flat.

Analysts pointed to data showing a 61% YoY rise in rail trips made in China during the Lunar New Year holiday, with hundreds of millions of people on the move as extended families gathered across the vast country.

Healthy hotel bookings and e-commerce spending in the holiday period were also cited as a reason for the upbeat sentiment.

"Early data around holiday travel may show some green shoots for the sluggish Chinese consumer," Taylor Nugent from National Australia Bank wrote in a note.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, called the data a source of relief for Chinese "policymakers grappling with challenges such as slowing economic growth, deflation risks, subdued consumer demand, and a collapse in the property sector".

"However, while the surge in tourism provides a glimmer of hope, its long-term sustainability remains uncertain," he cautioned.

Innes said investors in Chinese shares were optimistic about sustaining recent positive momentum in Asian markets despite last week's US inflation shock.

Speaking in Washington on Friday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US central bank should "resist the temptation to act quickly" as it considers the right time to begin rate cuts.

Nugent noted on Monday that Fed speakers have "continued to preach patience", adding that "the data flow isn't giving them the green light to accelerate their cutting plans".

Despite modest falls on Monday, Tokyo's key Nikkei index has been booming, with a positive trend seen in recent months now taking the index close to an all-time record set in 1989.

Optimism around strong Japanese earnings reports and the weak yen is bolstering this performance, analysts said.

But "some investors may consider profit-taking opportunities as the Nikkei approaches new all-time highs, as many wonder how long the weaker currency, which has supported exporter profits hugely, will last", Innes warned.

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