Asian stocks gain as US inflation report lowers rate hike odds

September 15, 2023 (MLN): A mixed US inflation report boosted equity markets Thursday as it soothed fears of a possible Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week, though the still hot reading left open the possibility of one more before year's end, as APP reported.

Asian equities enjoyed a much-needed pick-up after a tepid week.

Tokyo jumped more than one% along with Seoul and Taipei, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta were also well up.

London joined the rally, though Paris and Frankfurt dipped.

"Asia has some clear air to reclaim some of the week's losses," said Kyle Rodda, at Capital.com.

"US inflation offered up more questions than answers, but it's a volatility event out of the way -- the proverbial can has been kicked down the road just a little."

The European Central Bank is due to conclude its latest policy meeting later in the day, with the region facing a pick-up in cost pressures as energy prices rebound -- largely because of Saudi Arabia and Russia's output cuts.

"This is one is a coin toss as to whether the central bank opts for another hike," said Neil Wilson at Markets.com. "There is a good case to be made for both a pause and a hike today, which only underlines the kind of predicament the ECB is facing."

While the data did not provide the knock-out for any more tightening, analysts said traders were buoyed by the fact they had got over a major hurdle unscathed, providing much-needed support to risk assets.

Wall Street ended broadly higher, though dealers remained nervous after Wednesday's release, which showed consumer prices picked up on the back of a surge in oil prices, while core inflation -- excluding energy and food -- was slightly higher than hoped but still acceptable.

The figures also got a mixed reception among analysts.

"These data are supportive of a pause in September," said Rubeela Farooqi, at High Frequency Economics.

"However, the (policy committee) is not likely to declare victory until it sees further evidence of improvement towards the two% target. They will remain open to further rate hikes, if needed."

And Neil Wilson at Markets.com said that "the implication may be that the Fed will be more minded to keep a rate hike on the table for this year even though I still think it will stand pat next week".

However, Nationwide Life Insurance's Kathy Bostjancic said: "The core CPI is a bit disappointing.

"This will keep the Fed on a hawkish alert and suggests a rate hike is possible in November and December."

While readings on wholesale prices and retail sales are still to come this week, focus now turns to next week's Fed decision, which will be pored over for possible clues about its plans for the rest of 2023.

The Fed has insisted that its decision-making would be based on incoming data, meaning any indication that prices were on their way back up will likely spook markets.

Observers said the chances of a hike next week were very low, but the odds of a November hike were about 50%.

Crude prices remain elevated, sitting at 10-month highs, with some analysts warning they could even break back to $100.

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