Copper rebounds toward $13,000 on supply squeeze

May 01, 2026 (MLN): Copper prices have staged a sharp recovery, bouncing back to around $13,000 per metric ton after briefly falling below $12,000/mt, driven by mine disruptions and a renewed risk-on tone in global markets.

UBS forecasts copper to reach $15,000/mt by end of March 2027, projecting a market deficit of 520,000 metric tons in 2026 larger than in 2025.

A key factor behind the price surge is growing tightness in sulfur supply. The Middle East, a major exporter of sulfur used in hydrometallurgical copper leaching, supplies critical feedstock to mining hubs in Indonesia and the DRC.

The situation has been further strained by China's upcoming restrictions on sulfuric-acid exports from May, raising costs and threatening output at higher-cost leaching operations.

Supply-side pressures in South America have added further momentum to the rally.

Chile saw an 8.4% month-on-month drop in February copper output to approximately 375,400 metric tons, while Peru's production declined 0.9% to around 201,414 metric tons.

Several major producers have already revised down their 2026 guidance, and significant supply growth hopes now rest on the Cobre Panama mine, with a government decision anticipated by June.

On the demand front, consumption is expected to remain resilient, underpinned by grid investment in China and continued electric vehicle penetration.

However, warn that a prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel could weigh on global growth and copper demand, potentially forcing a revision to the current 2.8% demand growth forecast for the year.

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