Asian markets gain amid US economic uncertainty

February 06, 2025 (MLN): Asia shares rose on Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street following a see-saw session, while US Treasury yields came under pressure after mixed economic data.

European stock futures pointed to solid gains later in the day, extending their rally from the previous session.

This was driven in part by a surge in healthcare stocks as sales of Novo Nordisk's blockbuster drug Wegovy more than doubled in the fourth quarter.

Though many uncertainties remain under US President Donald Trump's new administration, markets were for now relieved that things were not worse, particularly regarding the tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US and its major trading partners.

That helped lift global share markets and kept the dollar in check, giving some respite to its peers, which had been heavily battered at the start of the week, as Reuters reported.

"Relief is probably a good way to characterize (the market mood)," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

"Also, in respect to China, even though the tariffs have officially come into force since Tuesday and China has sort of retaliated, but the retaliation from the Chinese side is very measured."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Thursday again set a stronger-than-expected yuan midpoint fixing, countering concerns it might allow the currency to slide to offset the impact of tariffs on the country's exports.

That kept the onshore yuan steady around 7.2766 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.07% to 7.2778.

China's CSI300 blue-chip index reversed early losses to trade slightly higher, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.13%.

Chinese authorities at this stage are not indicating or showing any intention of weakening the yuan as part of the response to the tariffs.

I think that has helped to calm the market down, said Goh.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.28%, while Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.28%.

Nasdaq futures ticked up 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.09%.

All three major US stock indexes closed in positive territory on Wednesday, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq's nominal gain was held in check by disappointing earnings from Alphabet which fueled doubts about the payoff of investments in artificial intelligence.

US Treasury yields were hovering near their lowest in over a month on Thursday, as investors pondered the outlook for rates in the world's largest economy.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Wednesday said he is content to keep the central bank's policy rate in its current position.

He emphasized the need to first gain a better understanding of the net effects of the Trump administration's policies on tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes.

Traders weighed his comments against mixed US economic data releases which showed a stronger-than-expected pick-up in ADP's private payrolls data but a surprise deceleration in the services sector. 

Record high imports also pushed the US trade deficit sharply wider.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last little changed at 4.4201%, while the two-year yield edged slightly higher to 4.1889%.

Futures point to just over 45 basis points worth of easing from the Fed by the year-end. 

In currencies, the dollar was on the back foot.

"The central vibe running through trade has been the solid bid in US Treasuries, with the US dollar finding increased selling flows across the G10 FX complex," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Against the dollar, the euro hovered above the $1.03 level and last bought $1.0398, while sterling held near a one-month high and was fetching $1.24995.

The Bank of England announces its rate decision later Thursday when it looks set to deliver a rate cut.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, languished near its lowest in over a week at 107.61.

The yen, meanwhile, rose 0.3% to 152.11 per dollar.

This was helped by comments from Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura, who said the central bank must raise short-term interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025 to contain inflation risks.

In commodities, oil prices rose, steadying from a sell-off the previous day after Saudi Arabia's state oil company sharply raised March oil prices.

U.S. crude edged 0.32% higher to $71.27 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.23% to $74.78.

Gold resumed its rally to firmly near a record peak, and was last at $2,869.62 an ounce. 

"Gold is one of three things: it's an inflation hedge, it's a dollar hedge or it's a disaster hedge," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor & market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.

For much of the last five or six years, I would say gold was a dollar hedge.

Now it has become more of a hedge against things going wrong.

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