The Petrol Subsidy: Math?

September 28, 2026 (MLN): Imagine Aslam, a Karachi office worker who rides his motorcycle to work. Since the petrol subsidy began, he has been stopping at a petrol station every week, showing the SMS token on his phone and filling up with five litres of petrol. At around Rs391 a litre, the bill comes to Rs1,955. The token knocks Rs500 off the bill, leaving him to pay Rs1,455.

Four tokens a month. Rs2,000 in relief. That is the most Aslam can get.

Now multiply Aslam by six million, the number of people the government says have registered for its petrol relief scheme. You get Rs12 billion a month. The government says it is spending Rs35–40 billion.

Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik says more than six million people have registered for the Prime Minister's fuel relief scheme, and that the government is spending Rs35–40 billion a month on it. He now says the government may allocate Rs400–500 billion to extend it for another 10 months, cutting its own expenditure to pay for it.

Before anyone approves half a trillion rupees, someone should check the arithmetic.

What each user can actually get

Under the scheme, motorcycles and rickshaws get relief of Rs500 a week, and cars up to 800cc get Rs1,000 every ten days. Since a September 20 revision, motorcycle users get four Rs500 tokens a month with no litre limit. So the cap is Rs2,000 a month for a motorcycle and Rs3,000 for a small car.

Multiply that by six million registered users:

Even in the most expensive case, with every user driving a car and claiming every rupee, the bill is less than half of what the government says it is spending. To reach Rs35–40 billion, 12 to 20 million people need to claim their full quota.

Early usage data points the same way. By September 20, 1.75 million registrations and just over 680,000 tokens redeemed, which is roughly Rs340 million in relief actually paid out. Uptake is rising fast, but it is nowhere near Rs35 billion a month.

Three possible explanations

The minister may be quoting a projection that assumes registrations will keep climbing, not actual spending. The scheme may carry costs that have not been disclosed. 

Or money may be leaking. For the bill to reach Rs35–40 billion, far more relief would have to be paid out than six million capped users can claim. That would point to duplicate or ghost registrations, or tokens being redeemed without fuel changing hands. There is a separate problem, too. once subsidised petrol is pumped, it can not be told apart from ordinary petrol, so some of it can be resold, and the relief ends up with people it was never meant for.

The available data does not establish which is true. That is exactly the problem.

The cost keeps moving

On September 14, the ECC approved Rs75 billion, and the minister estimated a monthly cost of Rs25–30 billion, around Rs300 billion over 10 months. Two weeks later, the 10-month figure is Rs400–500 billion, up by as much as two-thirds.

For scale, Rs300 billion was already estimated at about 30% of the Rs1 trillion federal development budget. At Rs500 billion, it is half. And the scheme has no end date. The minister says relief could continue until the war ends, while Brent climbed 3.29% to $107.75 today as US-Iran talks stalled.

There is also no poverty test. Registration checks a CNIC, a SIM and a vehicle record. According to media reports, the minister said Pakistan has more than 25 million motorcycles. If they all claimed the full quota, the bill would be Rs50 billion a month, or Rs500 billion over 10 months.

What the government should publish

Cushioning motorcyclists from a war-driven fuel shock is a defensible goal. Spending Rs500 billion on numbers that do not reconcile is not.

Before extending the scheme, the government should publish three figures every month. How many users are actively claiming relief, how many tokens are being redeemed, and how much has actually been paid out.

If those numbers add up to Rs40 billion a month, the scheme is bigger than the government has said. If they do not, Pakistan deserves to know where the rest is going.

Copyright Mettis Link News