Gold gains on dollar dip, rate cut bets rise

November 07, 2025 (MLN): Gold prices advanced on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened following disappointing private-sector employment data, which signaled softness in the U.S. labor market and strengthened expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the prolonged U.S. government shutdown further bolstered safe-haven demand.

Spot gold was up 0.14% at $3,992.57 an ounce as of [11:05 am] PST, according to data reported by Mettis Global.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $4,004.40 per ounce, supported by growing market conviction that monetary easing could continue.

Fresh data showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, while cost-cutting measures and the adoption of artificial intelligence contributed to a surge in announced layoffs.

“The private jobs data continues to support expectations of a December rate cut, which is lending support to gold prices,” said Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ.

The U.S. dollar index slipped, leading declines among major currencies as traders, deprived of official labor market data due to the government shutdown, relied on private-sector surveys indicating weakness in hiring trends.

A weaker jobs market typically increases the likelihood of rate reductions. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, investors now assign a 69% probability to another Fed rate cut in December, up from around 60% in the previous session. The Fed trimmed interest rates last week, with Chair Jerome Powell suggesting it could be the final cut of the year.

“The market focus has now shifted to macroeconomic indicators and the timeline for ending the U.S. shutdown, both of which are supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal,” Kumari added.

The current congressional deadlock has resulted in the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown, forcing both investors and the data dependent Federal Reserve to lean on private sector reports for economic guidance.

Gold, a non-yielding asset, typically performs well in low interest rate environments and periods of economic or political uncertainty.

Among other precious metals, spot silver climbed 0.7% to $48.31 per ounce but was still headed for a weekly loss of 0.7%. Platinum fell 0.4% to $1,534.21, down nearly 2% for the week, while palladium gained 0.3% to $1,379.33, poised for a weekly increase of 0.5%.

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