GHNI target price raised to Rs1,393 on strong CV demand

June 08, 2026 (MLN): Ghandhara Industries Limited (GHNI) has seen its valuation outlook strengthened as improving commercial vehicle demand and better-than-expected sales performance prompted an upward revision in earnings estimates and target price.

The revised target price has been increased to Rs1,393.06 per share from the earlier Rs1,189.13, showing a more optimistic outlook for the company’s profitability trajectory, according to report by Munir Khanani Securities.

The stock now offers a potential upside of 48.1% from its last closing price of Rs940.47, with an Overweight stance maintained on the counter.

The revision comes amid a broad recovery in Pakistan’s auto sector during 10MFY26, supported by easing inflation, declining interest rates, and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Passenger car sales surged 49% year-on-year to 166,044 units, indicated a broad-based rebound in consumer demand.

More notably, the commercial vehicle segment recorded even stronger momentum.

Truck sales across the industry jumped 81% year-on-year during 10MFY26, driven by higher industrial activity, with GDP growth of 3.99% in 9MFY26 and Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) expanding 10.56%.

Increased goods transportation and infrastructure-related demand further reinforced this trend.

GHNI emerged as a key beneficiary of this upcycle, with its truck sales rising 60% year-on-year over the period. Meanwhile, the ISUZU D-Max pickup segment also maintained positive traction, selling 640 units despite intensifying competition from newly launched models.

Reflecting stronger demand trends, earnings assumptions have been revised upward.

Truck sales for FY26e are now projected at 4,322 units versus the earlier estimate of 3,750 units, while D-Max sales are expected to reach 800 units compared to the previous forecast of 320 units. For FY27e, truck sales are anticipated to rise further to 4,939 units, representing 14.3% year-on-year growth.

As a result, earnings per share estimates have been upgraded to Rs156.96 for FY26e and PKR 194.67 for FY27e, compared to previous projections of Rs135.39 and Rs157.65, respectively.

The revision is primarily driven by higher volumes in the truck segment and sustained performance in light commercial vehicles.

Looking ahead, the outlook for the commercial vehicle industry remains constructive, supported by ongoing industrial expansion, enforcement of axle load regulations, and continued infrastructure development.

Additional upside may emerge from improved regional trade flows, particularly with Iran, along with large-scale projects such as Reko Diq, which are expected to boost logistics and transport demand.

Key risks to the investment case include geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, and potential increases in interest rates, which could weigh on economic activity and commercial vehicle demand.

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