Crude climbs on easing US-China trade tensions

October 13, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices rebounded on Monday from five-month lows reached in the previous session, as investor sentiment improved on hopes that potential talks between the U.S. and Chinese presidents could help ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and leading oil consumers.

Brent crude futures went up by $0.94, or 1.50%, to $63.67 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.87, or 1.48%, to $59.77 per barrel by [12:00 pm] PST.

Oil markets saw a rebound as traders engaged in profit-taking, betting on a de-escalation of the US-China trade conflict.

This optimism follows signals from President Trump and Vice President JD Vance that the newly informed tariffs are intended as a negotiation tactic, suggesting a willingness to strike a deal with China a trading rule of thumb analyst Tina Teng referred to as "Trump always chickens out."

However, Teng cautioned that volatilities are expected, stating she does "not expect oil or any other risk assets to reverse the losses so soon."

The latest friction started last week when China expanded its rare earth export controls, leading President Trump to reveal plans on Friday to impose a 100% tariff on China's U.S.-bound exports and new controls on "any and all critical software" by November 1.

These moves precede a potential Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC forum in South Korea this month, which U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said is still possible.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the "most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies" and that talks could extend the tariff escalation pause reached in May. Yet, they warned of the continuing risk of trade tensions escalating. Oil prices previously tumbled in March and April during heightened trade tensions.

On the demand side, China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5million barrels per day, driven by refineries operating at their highest utilization rates this year and ongoing stockpiling efforts.

In the Middle East, President Trump declared on Sunday that the Gaza war has ended, ahead of his visit to Israel for the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners under a fragile ceasefire he brokered.

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