BIPL brings top policymakers to chart FY27 economic roadmap

July 31, 2026 (MLN): As Pakistan looks towards consolidating its recent macroeconomic stability into a sustained, long-term growth, an informed dialogue between policymakers, economists, and financial sector remains critical for shaping reforms needed to get there.

In a laudable effort to promote such dialogues, Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL) once again demonstrated its commitment to thought leadership in the financial sector by organizing a seminar titled "Pakistan Economic Outlook: FY2027 and Beyond" in Karachi, bringing together some of the country's leading policymakers, economists, and academics under one roof.

The seminar was attended by senior bankers, investors, members of the business community, financial sector stakeholders, and representatives from various economic institutions.

President and CEO BIPL, Rizwan Ata, delivered the opening remarks at the seminar, highlighting the importance of critical assessment of reforms required for a sustainable economic growth.

Deputy Governor SBP Muhammad Amin Khan Lodhi, while addressing the seminar, said that the country's aim is to achieve sustainable economic growth, and it is imperative for the financial sector to increase savings for channeling them into productive investment.

The objective, he said, was to bring the current account deficit down to a range of 0-1% of the GDP, and that the recent buildup in foreign exchange reserves came on the back of FX purchases by the central bank, rather than borrowing.

Mr. Amin said that SBP-held reserves surged past $18bn by the end of FY26, and that the target being pursued was to enhance them to $20.20bn by December 2026.

Ali Khizar, Director Research at Business Recorder, raised concerns around currency in circulation and deposit growth, and said that overreliance on workers' remittances has been a persistent area of concern.

He said that the growth model needed for the next 20 years will have to differ substantially from the one that drove growth over the past two decades, and flagged a lack of focus on exchange rate adjustments as part of the broader growth strategy.

Dr. Ali Hasanain, Associate Professor at LUMS, said Pakistan's exports remain low largely because the country is either not producing what the world demands or not producing it competitively, and pointed to structural issues in the tax and incentive system.

He said that keeping the dollar artificially cheap is detrimental to exports and overall economic stability, and called for greater focus on channeling resources towards export oriented industries.

He said Pakistan should source imports from wherever they are cheapest globally, and flagged low female labour force participation and a low savings rate as key constraints on growth, social development, and investment. He also pointed towards high child mortality as a persistent problem and said that 22 more infants die than what the country’s income level would otherwise suggest.

Dr. Faisal Mushtaq, President of MiTE Karachi, followed with his remarks, echoing similar themes on the need for comprehensive economic reforms and improvement in social indicators.

Khurram Husain, a seasoned Economic Analyst, tied the discourse of the event together in his remarks, focusing on how Pakistan's import intensity has nearly doubled since FY03, as the country now imports $1.87 for every $1 it exports.

He also pointed towards a buildup of global oil inventories before the US-Iran conflict, which have now been drawn down to 345mn barrels since January 2026, erasing over half of last year's record stock. While responding to a question, he said that another bout of inflation cannot be ruled out due to an expectation of an oil price surge beyond $100.

Finally, in his keynote address, Advisor to the Finance Minister on Economic and Financial Reforms, Khurram Schehzad, reiterated the government's commitment towards a long-term economic agenda centered on sustained macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and private-sector-led growth to ensure inclusive economic progress.

He said that export-led, private-sector-driven growth is the government's target, with multifaceted measures underway to achieve it, adding that Pakistan's economy has shown remarkable resilience over the past two to three years, with stability now the foundation of ongoing policy.

Highlighting key achievements, Khurram Schehzad said real GDP growth rose to 3.7% in FY26, aided by stronger performance in agriculture, large-scale manufacturing, and services.

On fiscal management, he said that the fiscal deficit was contained to under 1% of GDP during the first nine months of the fiscal year, while the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 75% to 68%, reflecting improved fiscal discipline.

He said reserves have surged in three years without a corresponding rise in external public debt, indicating the buildup was not debt-financed.

Mr. Schehzad also pointed to 11 successful IPOs and a growing number of new company registrations as signs of improving investor confidence, alongside budgetary measures supporting housing, agriculture, SMEs, electric vehicles, entrepreneurship, startups, and youth-focused initiatives.

On structural reforms, he said that 28 privatization transactions have been initiated, including privatization of three power distribution companies that has drawn interest from firms in China, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia. This follows the successful conclusion of the privatization of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).

He said the reform agenda spans privatization, energy, public debt management, tax administration, tariff rationalization, Digital Pakistan initiatives, and expanded access to finance.

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