Urea sales likely to plunge by 15% YoY in Nov: JS Global

December, 07 2018 (MLN): JS Global Capital Limited in its research report estimates that the domestic urea offtake in Nov-2018 is expected at approximately 511k tons, down by 15% YoY.

While, cumulative urea offtake during 11M2018 is expected to drop by 1% YoY to 5.0mn tons as compared to 5.1mn tons in the corresponding period last year.

Speaking to Mettis global news, research analyst at JS Global, Mr. Karim Punjani said that due to hike in anticipated urea prices, pre-buying in the month of October has been observed. This, coupled with the actual rise in urea prices will contribute to drive down urea sales.

The report further adds that, due to initiation of production by LNG-based players, cumulative sales of Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) and Fauji Fertilizers Bin Qasim (FFBL) are expected to decline by 31% YoY while market share of Fauji group is estimated to clock in at 48% vis-à-vis 59% during Nov-2017.

Moreover, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) sales are also expected to decline by 20% YoY to 155K tons as compared to 195k tons during Nov-2017. Whereas, sales from both plants of Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) are estimated to record off-take growth of 99% YoY to 80k tons.

In regard to DAP sale, Mr. Karim Punjani added that, owing to substantial increase in DAP prices because of exchange rate movement , DAP offtake in the month is predicted to plunge by massive 32% YoY to 265k tons as compared to 387k tons in the corresponding period last year.

However, cumulative sales of the industry is expected to remain on the upward trajectory, depicting a growth of 3% YoY to 1.7mn tons.

Furthermore, inventory of the said segment is expected to clock in at 588k tons, broadly led by higher imports by EFERT.

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