Oil prices edge up, demand outlook remains weak

January 28, 2025 (MLN): Oil prices ticked up but hovered near a two-week low on Tuesday after weak economic data from China and warming weather forecasts elsewhere soured the demand outlook.

Brent crude futures increased by $0.38, or 0.49%, to $77.46 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $0.36, or 0.49%, to $73.53 per barrel by [11:30 am] PST. 

China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, reported on Monday an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in January, adding to concerns over global crude demand growth, as Reuters reported.

"The general tone of caution in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers that cast further doubt on China's oil demand outlook, may serve as a drag on oil prices," IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong said.

China's crude oil demand is also expected to be impacted by the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil trade.

FGE analysts predict that refineries in Shandong could lose up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supply in the near term due to a ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group on U.S.-sanctioned tankers.

"Alternative crude barrels (to Russian supply) are being sought after at the same time, but they come at much higher costs," the analysts noted.

Several independent refineries in China have halted operations, or plan to do so, for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies plunge plants deeper into losses.

India, the world's third-largest crude importer, also faces disruptions to Russian oil supply, but refiners there are taking advantage of a wind-down period in the sanctions to make purchases until March, the FGE analysts said.

In the U.S., weather forecasts are for warmer-than-normal temperatures through this week, which is weighing on demand for heating fuels after extreme cold sparked a natural gas and diesel rally in prior sessions.

"Temperatures in both regions (U.S. and Europe) are increasing, allowing for heating fuel demand to slide off some," StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said on Monday.

Broader financial markets were under pressure from a surge of interest in a low-cost artificial intelligence model launched by Chinese firm DeepSeek.

"Losses (in the oil market) appear relatively limited from the turmoil in U.S. tech stocks," IG's Yeap said.

Still, caution is likely to persist as the Feb. 1 deadline for U.S. tariffs approaches, with any potential trade restrictions likely to introduce downside risks to global growth, which could translate to downward pressure on oil, Yeap added.

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