G-7, IEA move calms oil peak

March 09, 2026 (MLN): Following the dramatic early-morning surge where global oil prices rocketed past $116 per barrel, the market has begun to show signs of a "cooling off" period.

Global oil prices have retreated from their session highs following reports that the G-7 and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are set to discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves on Monday.

While Brent crude had surged by as much as 24% earlier in the day, it is now trading approximately 17.12% at $108.56 per barrel.

Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures is up $13.05, or 24.36%, at $103.95 per barrel by [11:10 am] PST, according to Mettis Global data.

This cooling of the "panic peak" comes as Brent and WTI contracts give up some of their earlier gains specifically in response to the Financial Times report regarding the potential reserve release

Despite this dip, the relief provided by such a release will likely be brief because the fundamental crisis the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged.

While investors previously viewed oil prices above $100 as a sign of global economic distress, the current volatility has shifted market sentiment so drastically that $100 is now considered a "relief downside target", according to Bloomberg.

Traders may currently be too optimistic, as downward pressure on global stocks and bonds is expected to intensify until there is clear visibility that the Strait has been sustainably reopened for tanker traffic.

The broader supply landscape remains severely constrained, with Iraq's southern production still down by roughly 70% and Kuwait maintaining precautionary reductions due to the conflict.

While the UAE’s ADNOC has noted that its onshore operations continue as normal, the storage constraints affecting offshore production highlight the logistical strain on the region.

Amidst this market shock, President Donald Trump has downplayed the surge on Truth Social, characterizing short-term price increases as a small price to pay while the conflict continues.

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