Oil falls on peace talks, supply concerns

February 13, 2025 (MLN):  Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday on expectations that a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would end sanctions that have disrupted supply flows, while crude inventories rose in top producer the United States.

Brent crude futures decreased by $0.81, or 1.08%, to $74.37 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $0.82, or 1.15%, to $70.55 per barrel by [12:45 pm] PST. 

Brent and WTI fell more than 2% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him.

Following this, Trump ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine, as Reuters reported.

Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and sanctions imposed on its crude exports as a result of its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago have supported higher prices.

In a note on Thursday, ANZ analysts said oil prices declined on news of the potential peace talks because of "optimism that risks to crude oil supplies would ease", pointing to the U.S. and E.U. sanctions that are pushing down Russia's output.

"Signs of tightening supply have been pushing up oil prices in recent weeks," they said. "U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and vessels are said to have exacerbated the situation."

A build in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer, also weighed on the market. U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9mn barrels in the week ended Feb. 7, the EIA said, beating analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3mn barrel rise.

"This recent downturn in crude oil futures follows a period of consecutive inventory builds," said Darren Lim, a commodities strategist at Phillip Nova.

"Geopolitical developments, such as proposals to end the conflict in Ukraine, could put crude oil prices under further pressure."

Trump's threat of additional tariffs against U.S. trade partners also pressured prices, amid inflation jitters and concerns that it may reduce economic growth and therefore oil demand.

"The high inflation print is a dampener, as it pushes rate cuts further back," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank.

Trump said he would impose reciprocal tariffs as soon as Wednesday evening on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports, in a move that ratchets up fears of a widening global trade war and threatens to accelerate U.S. inflation.

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