Global markets steady ahead of US inflation data

January 15, 2025 (MLN): Global markets remained steady on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. consumer price data that could reduce the likelihood of a rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, attention focused on whether the earnings of major banks would meet high expectations, as Reuters reported.

U.S. equity futures were slightly firmer in Asia, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%.

Japan's Nikkei gave up earlier gains to be off 0.1%, extending its losing streak to five days.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1%.

China's blue chips fell 0.4% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 0.3%.

In other news that broke in Asia, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued tech billionaire Elon Musk for having failed to timely disclose purchasing more than 5% of Twitter's common stock in 2022.

Overnight, U.S. producer price data for December was surprisingly tame, with the core measure flat in the month.

That restrained the U.S. dollar and pulled short-term Treasury yields off their highs.

The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher.

Still, futures continued to price in just 29 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first cut not fully priced in until September.

While 10-year Treasury yields initially fell on the PPI data, they bounced back and ended the day just a tick lower than the high of 4.809%.

In Asia, the benchmark U.S. yield was little changed at 4.786% on Wednesday.

Much is riding on the CPI data due later Wednesday.

Forecasts are centered on a small 0.2% rise in the core measure, with risks skewed to the upside.

A strong reading of 0.3% or more could trigger another bout of selling in stocks and bonds.

This CPI print is a pivot data point.

A dovish print likely reignites the rally which is likely to get a boost from a strong earnings period, said analysts at JPMorgan in a note to clients.

"A hawkish print could see the 10Y yield make a run at 5%, increasing volatility across all asset classes, and continuing to pressure equities."

Investors are also gearing up for U.S. fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, with results from some of the biggest U.S. banks including Citi and JPMorgan due on Wednesday.

Lenders were expected to report stronger earnings, fueled by robust dealmaking and trading.

In Europe, the spotlight is again on the UK after concerns about the country's fiscal outlook pummelled government bonds to 16-year lows.

The local CPI report is due on Wednesday and is expected to show underlying inflation picked up to a monthly rate of 0.5%.

The pound slipped 0.1% to $1.2198, just a touch above a one-year low of $1.2099.

The euro held at $1.03, having rallied 0.6% overnight.

The Japanese yen underperformed even in the face of a weaker U.S. dollar, hovering at 157.95 per dollar after a 0.3% retreat overnight.

In the commodities market, oil prices were slightly higher after ending Tuesday more than 1% lower. 

U.S. crude rose 0.3% to $77.74 a barrel and Brent was 0.2% higher at $80.09.

Copyright Mettis Link News