April 30, 2019 (MLN): As we turn the corner to step into May 2019, a timely look back at the outgoing month’s inflation figure is in order, so as to evaluate the economy’s current position justly.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is scheduled to announce April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers in the next few days preceding which, various brokerage houses in Pakistan have put forth their expectations for the inflation figures.
|
CPI Forecast for April 2019 |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Brokerage House |
Expected YoY CPI change |
Expected MoM CPI change |
|
Ismail Iqbal Securities |
8.9% |
1.40% |
|
Arif Habib Limited |
8.96% |
1.42% |
|
Spectrum Securities |
8.81% |
1.28% |
|
Elixir Securities |
9.00% |
– |
|
Optimus |
8.80% |
– |
|
Topline |
8.80% |
– |
|
Intermarket Securities |
8.70% |
– |
|
Alfalah Securities |
8.25% |
– |
|
Darson Securities |
8.54% |
0.98% |
|
FAML |
9.07% |
– |
|
Foundation Research |
9.00% |
1.50% |
|
Insight Securities |
9.10% |
1.50% |
|
Shajar Capital |
9.08% |
1.51% |
|
Abbasi & Co. |
8.30% |
0.78% |
|
Average |
8.81% |
1.30% |
What can easily be deduced from the aforementioned projections is that the market unanimously expects a decline in year-on-year (YoY) CPI inflation, as compared to previous month’s YoY inflation of 9.41%.
Mr. Zeeshan Afzal at Insight Securities explained that the YoY CPI is estimated to come down as the favorable base effect starts kicking in.
Ahead of the month of Ramadan, the rise in food prices towards the end of April comes as no surprise. Several brokerage houses have pointed out that along with food prices, increase in fuel prices and housing rents will also have contributed towards lifting up the index over the month.
The expected month-on-month rise in High-Speed Diesel (HSD) and petrol is expected on the back of changes in international oil prices in February and March.
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