China's port throughput growth to slowdown in 2024: Fitch

February 19, 2024 (MLN): China’s port throughput growth may slow in 2024, with the risk of a decline, amid weak external demand and manufacturing globally, Fitch Ratings says.

Cargo and container throughput at China’s eight major seaports rose by 4% and 6% yoy, respectively, in 4Q23.

Fitch believes the growth was driven by new shipping lines, additional container capacity, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the ramp-up of multimodal transport, and an increase in transported containers via the China-Europe Railway.

China’s export decline slowed to 3% yoy in 4Q23, from 11% in 3Q23. Exports to ASEAN and the EU fell by 9.3% and 9.7% in 4Q23, respectively, after the 17.0% and 17.5% drop in 3Q23. The decline in exports to the US also eased to 3% in 4Q23, from 14.3% in 3Q23.

The decline in ASEAN, EU and US demand was tempered by resilient exports to Russia, which jumped by 24% in 4Q23.

Fitch expects throughput growth to slow in 2024 as the Red Sea conflict may continue to disrupt global supply chains.

However, China’s throughput growth will be cushioned by the volume via the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, RCEP, China-Europe Railway and sea-river transport.

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