US GDP shows solid growth amid AI surge

December 23, 2025 (MLN): The United States is set to release its third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Tuesday. Consensus estimates from MarketWatch and Trading Economics project a 3.2% growth rate.

This would be slightly lower than the 3.8% expansion recorded in the second quarter, as reported by APP. 

The report was delayed nearly two months due to a government shutdown.

It came as the US economy showed signs of resilience despite ongoing debates over labor market trends, artificial intelligence investments, and policy uncertainties.

Earlier in 2025, concerns over aggressive trade policies under President Donald Trump had weighed on economic sentiment. 

However, subsequent negotiations with China and other major trading partners prevented the implementation of the most stringent tariffs, providing a boost to business confidence. 

At the same time, an AI investment surge led by companies such as OpenAI and Google has helped sustain US stock markets near record levels.

Research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that third-quarter growth could have reached 3.5%, describing it as "brisk-looking," though it cautioned that this may overstate the economy’s underlying condition. 

Pantheon highlighted slower job growth and muted retail trends as indicators of steady but moderate GDP growth heading into 2026. 

The firm also predicted that the Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate cuts in the new year, particularly amid the anticipated leadership change following Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled departure.

The Federal Reserve, responding to a slowing labor market, cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting in December, even as inflation remains above the 2% target. 

The central bank’s median GDP forecast for 2026 is 2.3%, up from 1.7% projected for 2025, showing cautious optimism about the economy’s trajectory.

White House economic advisors, including Kevin Hassett, have signaled that consumers could see tangible benefits from President Trump’s policies, particularly through increased tax refunds in 2026. 

However, Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that low consumer confidence may lead households to save rather than spend these windfalls, potentially limiting the boost to overall consumption.

According to S&P Global Ratings, AI-related investments are likely to support economic growth, but political uncertainty could offset some gains. 

While trade policy concerns have eased, ongoing uncertainty over laws, regulations, and geopolitical developments is expected to temper investment and discretionary spending in the coming year.

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