UBS expects mining equipment orders to rise in 2025

June 10, 2025 (MLN): UBS has stated that large copper mining projects could begin placing equipment orders as early as 2025, with significant building activity expected into 2026 and beyond.

This trend could potentially benefit European mining equipment makers.

The brokerage named Metso (OTC: MXTOF) as its top pick, citing the company's high exposure to copper and strong leverage to the mining capital spending cycle, as Investing.com reported.

UBS noted that copper accounts for over 40% of global mining capital expenditure, making it the largest driver of order intake for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

“There is a strong, structural outlook for copper demand, which is driven by electrification,” UBS wrote.

The firm emphasized that the copper market remains tight and substantial investment is necessary to meet future supply requirements.

UBS explained that while the exact timing of large orders is uncertain, OEMs typically receive them shortly after a project reaches its final investment decision (FID), rather than closer to the mine’s production start.

As an example, UBS cited orders for Pakistan’s $6 billion Reko Diq project, which accounted for 14% of 2024 mineral equipment orders for Weir and 11% for Metso.

The bank said that conversations across the industry support a strong outlook, though some participants are more cautious.

FLSmidth, for instance, anticipates an increase in activity beginning in 2026, based on interactions with engineering contractors.

UBS concluded that while 2025 may mark the start of a new wave of equipment orders, the majority of the copper project pipeline is expected to convert into business for OEMs in 2026, 2027, and 2028.

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